Panthers @ Buccaneers (-3)
This will be an interesting test of a demoralized team who may have played their worst game of the season last week coming into an elimination game with a rematch edge. We saw something similar last year when Pittsburgh contested Baltimore in the Wild Card round last year and it didn't end well for Pittsburgh. I'm inclined to side with Carolina, although they didn't do so well last week going up against Seattle.
In Ja'Tavion Sanders absence, Tommy Tremble has stepped up as a valuable option in the passing game.
The officiating has been a little rough in this game - the Buccaneers have been the beneficiary of some fortunate calls. On top of that, the rough and soggy turf has done this Panther team wrong on multiple occasions. Though perhaps this is testament again to the idea that Carolina is still too immature a team to actually contend in the postseason.
Sirvoisier Dennis has had a decent game. If there is to be a successor to Lavonte David, it's going to be Dennis.
Yaya Diaby is a red-chip pass rusher.
Seahawks @ 49ers (+2.5)
Darnold's processing time still remains as slow as ever, tragically. If his first or second read isn't there, the offense enters a state of jeopardy in that Darnold will need to reset and assess the field again prior to passing. Not good. At least Seattle's coaches seem aware of this, judging by the offensive play-calling.
It has been the two runners for Seattle and JSN's crisp route-running that has been carrying the Seattle offense. Charbonnet and Kenneth Walker are having fantastic games.
It's worth noting Seattle is down to their third-string left tackle midway through the 3rd quarter. It's worth watching to see if thier pass protection becomes compromised.
Darnold has issues. HIs performance in this game isn't all that different from his disastrous performance last year against the Lions in the season finale. It's just that Seattle is smart enough not to ask too much of him. And it helps to have the best receiver in the game working alongside him.
I need to check the blitzing numbers. I suspect Seattle is employing the blitz more than usual in this game.
Tatum Bethune went down twice in this game. He won't be fully healthy next week.
It's worth noting San Francisco was without its best receiver in Ricky Pearsall, who has been wrecked with injuries all year.
Disruptions
49ers
- Tatum Bethune - 1 CD
- Okuayinuku - 1 RD, 1 FD, 1 HT
- Bryce Huff - 1 ID
- Alfred Collins - 1 FD
- Keion White - 1 RD
Seahawks
- Drake Thomas - 1 ID
- Derrick Hall - 1 ID, 1 FD, 3 HT
- Demarcus Lawrence - 1.5 ID, 1 HT
- Jarren Reed - 0.5 ID, 1 FD, 2 HT
- Uchenna Nwosu - 1 FD, 1 HT
- Nick Emmanwori - 1 ID, 1 HT
- Boye Mafe - 1 FD
Ravens @ Steelers (+3.5)
Travis Jones is pretty good as a run defender. But Baltimore has yet to really impact Rodgers much in the pocket.
Nearly all of Pittsburgh's production in the first quarter and a half came from Jaylen Warren and Kenneth Gainwell racking up yards after the catch. Darnell Washington and DK Metcalf's absence is sorely felt.
Baltimore has no passing game so far. Very concerning. It's like Lamar lost all the chemistry he developed with his receivers and tight ends. Something's off here...I'd rather Tyler Huntley be back in the game instead.
It's worth noting that any rematch edge here may be truncated a bit by Lamar not playing fully healthy. But even still...the more important thing is that Pittsburgh beat Baltimore in their first match with any real help from complacency. In other words, it was an upset mostly dictated by talent and a bit of fortune. So yes, Baltimore had the rematch edge here, but to go from losing outright by five points to being 3.5 point favorites on the road is a little too generous of a correction here. That being said, they could cover here as this Steeler offense is lacking firepower without its two best receivers.
Disruptions
Ravens (Incomplete)
- Kyle Hamilton - 1 ID
Steelers
- Keanu Benton - 1 ID, 1 RD
- Yahya Black - 0.5 FD, 1 HT
- Nick Herbig - 1 ID, 1 FD, 1 CD
- Alex Highsmith - 2 ID, 1.5 FD, 1 HT, 1 RD
- Derrick Harmon - 1 FD
- T.J. Watt - 1 ID, 1 HT
- Cameron Heyward - 1 FD, 1 HT
- Logan Lee - 1 FD
Complacency still matters in the last week of the season, even with better seeding on the line. So many poor performances from playoff-caliber teams who should be closing out the season gracefully - the Rams, the Bears, the Patriots, the Texans, the Broncos, etc.
The Lions bouncing back after last week's abysmal performance reaffirms this idea of a bounce following a morale crash.
Contrary to my initial impression, I think Pittsburgh came into this game with a complacency edge. Let's not forget that complacency is still a relevant force in the postseason.
