Falcons @ Packers (-6)
You need to give Matt LaFleur credit - his bootleg-heavy offense is still producing yardage and points several years into his tenure.
It seems like Atlanta has two fantastic tailbacks in Bijan Robinson and Brian Robinson Jr.
Bijan Robinson is so good that he can even evade defenders that his teammate(s) may have even failed to block. Mark him as a definitive blue-chip player yet again.
I think this game is yet another excellent example of complacency. Despite being in a hostile environment and fielding somebody new who hasn't really played quarterback for some time, the Falcons have dominated this game from the start. The only sensible explanation is wicked complacency, likely compounded by some low morale through the club. I think this is proof that Green Bay has been taken over by some sort of organizational rot that the media has not yet fully uncovered.
Matthew Golden might have taken the crown away from Christian Watson as the Packers' best receiver. Then again, it helps that Golden has largely been covered by the inept Mike Hughes.
Worth noting multiple starters on this Packer offensive line are sidelined and their understudies (according to the depth chart) are playing injured. I need to confirm this for sure.
Patriots @ Jaguars (-2.5)
Mack Hollins is such a clutch third-down receiver for these Patriots.
Trevor Lawrence has become much better throwing the ball with time and decisiveness. Credit to Liam Coen and Grant Udinski for making him a better quarterback.
The Jaguars have been very successful running the ball today. It's clear the Patriots are struggling in this heat.
Chargers @ Bills (-7)
Chargers are committing hard towards running the ball. Justin Herbert only has 13 yards passing in the first quarter.
Titans @ Giants (-2.5)
Jeffery Simmons may be one of the best defensive tackles in the league. On top of that, John Michael Schmitz may be one of the worst centers in the league from a pass-blocking perspective.
Jameis Winston has had too many low throws for my liking. Passes are dying on him and he's overcompensating on the drive.
Robert Saleh once again demonstrates poor head coaching in attempting a 59-yard field goal in the rain to try and close out the first half. Instead, the miss gave the ball back to the Giants who return the ball the other way with a field goal.
In the second half, Cam Ward has been feasting, largely on out routes.
Cam Ward should have won this game if not for a bizarre decision to throw the ball to a Giants defender when he had so much green grass in front of him. Ward is a project that might never bear fruit.
Texans @ Colts (+2.5)
Daniel Jones actually making some good decisions with the ball against this stingy Texans defense.
An offense without any reliably productive players is garbage. Especially when that offense is led by a coordinator who's questionably qualified.
Multiple times have Texan receivers ended up crowding out one another on routes. Nick Caley is just garbage without the requisite talent.
The Texans offense makes no good use of motion or trickery. It's a very plain jane offense. Once again, this is an indictment on Nick Caley.
Bengals @ Steelers (+3.5)
I cannot stress enough how uninspiring this Steelers offense has looked in the second half even with complacency strongly in their favor.
Cardinals @ 49ers (-8.5)
Four to five points of complacency are in favor of the Cardinals here and yet they're struggling right out of the gate. I suppose that 19-point drubbing last year by San Francisco in Arizona was more in line with expectations than I originally estimated.
Key 49ers are dying one after the other. Mike Evans, Trent Williams, Dre Greenlaw (at least for a few snaps)…
I do think the 49ers have stronger interior players along their defensive front, at least when compared to the interior of Arizona's offensive line. They've shown up in the pass rush and in run defense.
Kyle Shanahan decided to smartly go for the touchdown at the end of the game instead of a field goal, knowing his kicker had the yips. Excellent decision-making.
Cowboys vs. Ravens (-3.5) (in Brazil)
So far, Nmandi Mdakubike has yet to make an impression in his return to football.
Baltimore's committing harder to defending against the deep pass.
Justice Hill is one fast little mofo for these Ravens, especially given how humid things are in Brazil. Consider him a red-chip player at the least.
I do think Declan Doyle started the second half with some conservative play calls as an overreaction to last week's criticism that he did not hand the ball to Derrick Henry enough. Worse yet, it might have impacted his decision-making when he insisted on three straight runs on a goal-line series of plays.
Jaishawn Barham has been sensational in run defense. In fact, combined with Quinnen Williams and Kenny Clark, I surmise the Cowboys have a pretty good rush defense.
Rams @ Broncos (+2)
The back-shoulder throws from Stafford to Davonte Adams are enough to designate Davonte as a red-chip player bordering on blue.
Stafford has a tendency not to hold on to the ball long, even if the pocket is clean. It's hard to assess whether this is something that can be used against him though given the speed with which he processes the field.
Bo Nix has once again continued his tradition of starting out terribly. He's thrown some turnover-worthy balls early.
The Broncos secondary (combined with some questionable prevent defense scheming by Vance Joseph) has been absolutely roasted by a Ram squad missing their best wide receiver.
This Ram secondary is incredibly well-coached with the way they remain disciplined. Chris Shula has also changed up his approach slightly to incorporate more man coverage into his defense. Mark him as a blue-chip defensive coordinator.
Every single member of the Broncos defensive line seems to have shown up at one point or another - D.J. Jones, Zach Allen, Nik Bonitto, Malcolm Roach, etc.
Stafford has demonstrated a willingness to run on occasion, likely as a result of that playoff game against Seattle last year when the Rams might have actually run if Stafford was willing to run on that fourth down.
If the Rams win this game, it's been thanks largely to the efficacy of their pass rushing. The pass rushers hitting home, forcing holds, and batting down passes have been the only things to truly stop the Broncos on offense.
Eagles @ Bears (+4.5)
Austin Edwards seems to have emerged yet again the Bears premier pass rushing weapon.
The Eagles are getting better at running the ball for significant yardage.
I don't think the Eagles offense respect Jalen Hurts much. After Hurts was nailed on a rough hit on the boundary, only a few teammates came to defend him.
Case Keenum has been playing like an elite quarterback tonight. I'm not even kidding. His processing is so quick and his throws have been mostly on point. His connection with Kalif Raymond in particular has been spectacular.
Raiders @ Saints (-3)
Foley Fatukasi single-handedly killed a whole Saint drive by himself.
Nathan Shephard has shown up on tape a few times.
The Raiders offense is making some hay against this Saints defense via throws directly over the middle of the field.
The Saints offense has come up with some creative ways to open space up for its receivers and tight ends.
Neither the Las Vegas defense nor the New Orleans defense can stop the opposing offenses in this game. Is this what happens when offenses led by some of the sharper minds in the industry face mediocre defenses?
Jonas Sanker is interesting in that even though the Saints have him billed as a free safety, he seems to roam the field and plays often in the box than what one would expect from a defensive back.
Carl Granderson may qualify as a red-chip player.
Brock Bowers is sensational in his return back for the Raiders. Kirk Cousins have thrown multiple contested balls his way and he's been able to catch them. Mark him as a blue-chip tight end.
The Saints were up by two scores in the third quarter, but blew that lead because Asim Richards failed to hold up in pass protection against Malcolm Koonce, who harassed Tyler Shough into turning the ball over twice. Richards was doing fine up until again against the likes of Kwity Paye, but Koonce was clearly a different level of competition. It does look as if the Saints missing Kelvin Banks Jr. can legitimately cost them some games, starting with this one.
Malcolm Koonce and Maxx Crosby are probably the best pass rushers on this Raider team. Neither has shown enough consistency to merit blue-chip designation, but the season is long.
Kwity Paye has produced mixed results as a defensive linemen.
Mike Washington Jr. looks like a much more capable tailback compared to Ashton Jeanty. The boy has speed and the ability to navigate through narrow lanes in the trenches.
Chargers @ Bills (-6.5)
I think the Chargers have lost confidence in Justin Herbert. Two shovel passes as part of the early play-calling is concerning. So is calling a run play on a third-and-five only to punt the ball the next down.
The Bills linebackers are some quick little buggers, aren't they? The way I see them attack the running game downfield, I can only attribute that to the defensive coaching, led by coordinator Jim Leonhard. Of course, his work was probably made easier given that those same linebackers (Dorian Williams and Terrel Bernard) were initially coached up by Sean McDermott just last year. McDermott was famous for the aggression for the way he would have his box players aggressively play opposing running games.
I do not like what I see from this Charger offense when it comes to run-blocking. It's almost guaranteed that one or two blockers will end up failing. On top of that, whatever defender is intentionally left uncovered is usually way too close to where the running lane is meant to develop. I genuinely don't like how this run-blocking is schematically structured.
Credit to the Chargers defense for showing up in this game. Multiple players showed up here in key moments. Chris O'Leary has done a fine job coaching up this unit while not deviating too far from the philosophy that made Jesse Minter's own version of this defense so successful last year.
LESSONS LEARNED
Huge victory for complacency theory this week. Buffalo was down by a good bit early in the game, but they were finally able to shake off the torpor late to win decisively and cover the spread, something I feared would happen given the extra rest they enjoyed this week. But the Steelers, the Commanders, and the Bears were able to show up thanks to the advantage they enjoyed as home underdogs.
Don't be so quick to bail out of bets. Give teams an entire first half to prove themselves. Then again, San Francisco losing key players through the game might be the only reason Arizona was able to cover the touchdown spread. And the over bet for the Cowboys/Ravens game was in serious contention until the very end. So maybe I do have a decent sense of when to bail. The real lesson here might be to avoid impulse betting.
So much for the 0-2 motivation theory this week. Not only did the Chargers, Titans, and Buccaneers lose, but they failed to cover the spread (which I find even more criminal).
I need to temper my watching football with other busy work or housework. It would calm my nerves and help keep me grounded.
