Steelers @ Browns (+2.5)
Deshaun Watson has been nothing short of excellent in this game. His deep passing has serious touch and he's showing composure. Credit to Todd Monken for renewing life in a quarterback who many (including myself) billed as a dead man walking. Watson hasn't quite blossomed back into elite form yet, but the potential is there.
Deshaun Watson's pocket presence seems much better as well, given the way he's been evading pressure.
The Browns are very undisciplined on defense. It's almost cartoonish the way they keep committing penalties. The announcers have been focusing on this well, which suggests that it's a major issue for this Browns club.
Denzel Ward may be well deserving of blue-chip designation given that he can maintain a sticky form of coverage while keeping his head turned towards the quarterback.
Carson Schwesinger has made his impact known early in the game, both in coverage and as a pass rusher.
Jaylen Warren is running spectacularly against this Cleveland defense. I suspect this Cleveland defense is too aggressive in its run fits - so long as he remains patient, he should have little issue redirecting towards open space.
KC Concepcion, Denzel Boston, and Harold Fannin Jr. have all emerged as Deshaun's preferred weapons in the passing game. Denzel Boston seems to be his favorite target of choice. It seems to make sense, considering Boston is quite the quarterback-friendly receiver given the way he's situated himself as an outlet whenever Watson is under pressure.
Cleveland has been the beneficiary of some non-calls from the referees so far. I'm telling you, this Cleveland team has some strange mojo to it. I attribute that somewhat to Todd Monken. The man has some rustic charm to him. The way I see him laughing it up with one of the coaches….
Cleveland under Mike Rutenberg runs a style of defense somewhat similar to Kansas City under Steve Spagnuolo. The predominant coverage defenders are largely attached to their receivers in man coverage. Linebackers and safeties tend to stay in the middle of the field, but are aggressive when they think an opportunity presents himself. Blitzes are somewhat common, but Rutenberg seems to rely more on exotic stunts from their defensive line in order to generate pressure.
Colts vs. Commanders (+3.5)
Washington reduced to playing with their third-string quarterback after Marcus Mariota exited early with injury. This game will only carry so much value going forward.
Once again, morale dipped once Marcus left.
This young passer from Rutgers has been impresing with some deep passes. Athan Kaliakmanis has not shown much fear, even after throwing a bad interception early.
Why is Laquan Treadwell have so much of a presence on this Indianapolis offense? Something seems wrong with that.
Cardinals @ Giants (+2.5)
This spread shifted four points in favor of the Cardinals over the week. It'd be interesting to see if this movement was warranted.
The Giants have one of the worst rushing defenses in the league. Even when they're in a position of advantage, they still give up big yardage.
Judging by the body language of the coaches, Jameis Winston has lost the confidence of management. It won't be long before J.J. McCarthy is starting for the Giants.
I love see Skatteboo seeking out contact in the ground game.
Arvell Reese has been unreal in this game. It's nice to see a breakout game from him.
Jameis Winston giveth and Jameis Winston taketh, as is tradition.
Patriots @ Bills (-6.5)
Patriots looked clean and crisp on the opening drive for a touchdown. I was impressed with the way Drake Maye conducted himself under pressure.
This Bills defense is so poor against mobile quarterbacks. They're too aggressive in the pocket. Then again, it's not like bull rushes are working out well for them either.
New England's secondary is playing very well in terms of energy.
I feel like the Bills are playing this a bit too complacent. When you have a defense playing a little too lax against a very mobile quarterback, it's not a good combination.
Maxwell Hairston has been a liability in coverage for these Bills. Several plays has he performed horribly and cost the Bills dearly.
To see Josh Allen leaning too heavily on the likes of Josh Palmer and Keon Coleman to matriculate the ball downfield against this tricky Patriot secondary…that shows me that Buffalo is once again missing decent options at receiver. D.J. Moore was supposed to be the point man there, but he left the game early with injury. I'm also curious how the Patriots were able to shut down Dalton Kincaid.
Rams @ Eagles (+3.5)
I love seeing Chris Shula bring the blitzes on long downs on Philadelphia's offense. It's such a simple but effective tactic against the likes of Jalen Hurts, who is known to hold the ball.
I need to watch this game to figure out why Matthew Stafford is performing so poorly in the first half despite both of his stud receivers being available. I think Vic Fangio owning Sean McVay like this may warrant a downgrade for the Rams offensive coaching. This performance is all the more damning given how poorly the Eagles are playing on offense and how many key players they are down. From what I'm seeing so far, it's largely been messy throws from Matthew Stafford yet again.
Judging by the fact that Sean McVay elected to run the ball on 2nd and 18, I'm sensing that McVay has lost confidence in his offense and is trying to manage his way to victory here. Pretty damning.
Once again, Stafford's lack of precision in his passes is hurting them deeply here. And it's clear the Rams are not able to operate effectively from within the structure of their normal offense.
Lane Johnson's absence on this team was sorely felt in the waning moments of the game, when Byron Young sacked Jalen Hurts twice to seal the game for the Rams.
I'm watching the tape and see that Matthew Stafford has been interestingly consistent in his throws in that they're all slightly off target - receivers normally have to readjust or reach out to make awkward catches. This lack of accuracy is surprising, and may be a reason why Sean McVay seems so intent on running the ball even in negative game script.
The PFF grading and NFL Next-Gen Stats back up this point that Matthew Stafford wasn't accurate, although neither of his grades were horrible. If anything, they were stunningly mediocre.
Pressure up the middle makes Matthew Stafford wildly inaccurate. Three times have Philadelphia defenders got into his line of vision and he's made arguably the worst throws of the game in those moments. And few teams have better interior pass rushers than the Philadelphia Eagles.
Chiefs @ Raiders (+4.5)
Cousins has some moxie, throwing across the grain on a few of his early passes to help the Raiders take the early lead.
Chargers @ Seahawks (-7)
Emanual Wilson has shown potential as a solid tailback for these Seahawks.
Chargers are dropping the ball quite a bit early. Either the yips have set in or they're just not feisty enough after last week's solid outing.
Darnold has been frustratingly incompetent so far in this game. JSN has been open on numerous occasions and he's missed him.
Broncos @ 49ers (-2.5)
This Bronco defense is controlling the line of scrimmage against this venerable 49er run game. I know Trent Williams is injured, but it seems like Denver has a beat on this zone-running style that San Francisco employs on offense. The Rams employ a similar zone-running scheme as well (although they usually involve more tight ends), so maybe Denver is leveraging that recent experience to their benefit here.
Lions @ Panthers (+3)
Detroit's secondary weakness is showing itself here yet again. Bryce Young and Tetairoa McMillan are having too much fun here matriculating the ball through the air.
Bryce may have elevated himself to a definitive red-chip quarterback. More performances like the one tonight and he qualifies as a blue-chip quarterback.
Bryce has been feasting on throws over the middle and throws to Tetoiroa against this sad Detroit coverage unit.
Falcons @ Saints (-1.5)
This Falcons defense is better than I thought. Maason Smith, Brandon Dorlus and Gervon Dexter are showing up as dominant forces in the trenches.
Asim Richards has emerged as a major liability in pass protection. The Falcons have keyed in on this and exposed him. Kellen Moore and Brendan Nugent have not rectified this point of failure, despite the fact that he probably single-handedly cost them the game last week.
The Saints being down both of their starting linebackers as well as their best defensive lineman (arguably) has hurt them dearly here, at least in the run game defense. Troy Aikman and Joe Buck seem to imply Brandon Staley is aware of these shortcomings as well.
Bill Callahan has done solid work coaching up this offensive line. Even without Jake Matthews, the Falcons have had zero issue run-blocking against this New Orleans defense.
The Falcons had no issues dropping points on a Saints team that was allegedly fighting for something tonight. It's hard for me to believe the Saints team is this bad from a talent perspective. I think Brendon Staley is a man with no actionable back-up plan. Injuries ravaged through the front seven of his defense and he couldn't pivot accordingly. Mark him as a green-chip coordinator.
The Falcons secondary were strikingly competent against this Saints offense. I do not recall a single Saint skill player breaking free from his coverage defender. I'm honestly curious if Jeff Ulbrich has a beat on this Kellen Moore offense given he's faced off against the Saints a few times last year.
Harold Perkins Jr. flashed on tape several times tonight. Bill him as a potential red-chip player.
Jaguars @ Bengals (-2.5)
Oren Burk is a green-chip linebacker. He's not fast enough, strong enough, or reactive enough for my liking.
Bayshul Tuten is such a solid runner of the ball.
Foyesade Oluokun has ben a gamer for this Jaguars defense.
It's hard to use this game to judge either team. Ja'Marr Chase leaving the game early with injury changed the entire complexion of the contest. If anything, consider it yet even more of a damning indictment against Zac Taylor and Dan Pitcher for failing to figure out an offensive plan without their best player.
Cowboys @ Texans (-2.5)
Jadaveon Clowney has been sensational defending against the running game.
The Texans have been very lazy in covering receivers. I can see now why DeMeco Ryans opted to seize back playcalling duties from Matt Burke. On one hand, you have Kamari Lassiter fouling George Pickens repeatedly, keeping alive a Dallas drive that should have ended on a failed fourth-down conversion. On the other hand, you have Derek Stingley Jr. bizarrely opting not to cover CeeDee Lamb on select snaps. Jalen Pitre was also caught out of position on a few snaps.
Dallas seems to enjoy running through the C-gaps primarily. It remains to be seen whether that preference is more strategy or just a tactic employed for this game alone.
C.J. Stroud has played very well today. Having Nico Collins back in service really bolsters this Texans offense.
LESSONS LEARNED
I think opponent familiarity may be another factor I'm missing in my complacency analysis. This iteration of the Patriots is familiar with this iteration of the Bills (despite the fact that the Bills technically changed coaches in the offseason, they haven't changed philosophies). The way the Patriots secondary (as a whole) was always in position to limit Buffalo's gains demonstrated that. Likewise, few teams understand the Rams better than the Eagles. Had the Eagles been healthier offensively, this would be a Philadelphia victory.
Do not trust questionable offenses as big favorites. This applies to both Seattle and Buffalo, offenses that lack multiple receiving threats. Then again….Buffalo does have more options at their disposal, but when D.J. Moore exited early, they were left with only one viable threat at wide receiver.
