Raiders @ Broncos (-9.5)

The Raiders defense have played a wonderful game, but it's still not enough. This offense is so devoid of nuance or complexity that the Broncos defense has sometimes reacted way too fast for any of their plays to develop.

Without Jackson-Powers along that offensive line, the Raiders are unable to hold up in pass protection against the vaunted Bronco front.

Denver trying to start their first drive with three straight runs tells you all you need to know about the Broncos state of mind in this game (at least on offense). Well...that and all the mistakes they're making should tell you all you ned to know...

Seeing the Raiders have to blow multiple timeouts to try and organize amongst themselves offensively is worrying. Las Vegas is not a serious team on offense.

Falcons vs. Colts (-6.5) [Berlin]

This Falcons defense keeps changing up the coverage schemes post-snap and it's confusing Daniel Jones and the Colts.

Sauce Gardner is presenting as a liability in coverage once more despite being on a different team.

DeForest Buckner's presence is missed, at least in the run game.

The penalties and slow play from Daniel Jones is dissapointing. It seems like Raheem Morris better prepared his team than Shane Steichen.

The biggest issue with the Colts is that their passing game has no teeth. I'm not sure what the Falcons are doing here, but their coverage schemes have virtually defanged this Indianapolis air attack. It seems almost all positive production in the third and early fourth quarters for the Colts came courtesy of the ground game and on throws to the flat.

Daniel Jones holding the ball longer than expected in the pocket is a dangerous proposition. Atlanta has sacked him at least six times today on such plays.

Tyler Warren with two clutch catches late in the game to help the Colts nail the win here.

Jonathan Taylor and Tyler Warren are blue-chip players for the Colts. The jury remains out for Josh Downs, Alec Pierce, and Michael Pittman.

Rewatching the tape, what's becoming evident to me is that Daniel Jones is heavily reliant on his first read. When the first read isn't there and the pocket begins to shrink, it's usually disastrous. Atlanta's zone coverage almost always made Daniel Jones hesitate to throw balls past ten yards. On top of that, it looks to me the Falcons shaded coverage over to Michael Pittman. With Pittman draped by multiple defenders, it looks to me that Jones lost his security blanket.

Contrary to the team's overall performance this season, the Colts offensive line simply do not hold up well in pass protection against teams that know how to rush the quarterback.

Patriots @ Buccaneers (-2.5)

This Patriots defense is quite underrated. They seem to be playing very well against the Buccaneers short game - Tampa's runs and screens have been rendered ineffective so far. It's clear Mike Vrabel coached them up fairly well.

Drake Maye has been sensational today. Most notably, he's willing to throw the ball short against this Todd Bowles defense. Credit to Josh McDaniels too, as he's scheming these short plays in addition to scheduled routes over the middle to try and give his skill players an edge against man coverage. Against a Tampa team that doesn't have an elite pass rusher amongs its ranks, this New England is eating well.

The entire coaching staff for the Patriots can be considered elite. They put on a master class today.

Also one more shout-out to Drake Maye for some of the sacks he was able to avoid despite defenders having made contact with him in the pocket.

The Buccaneers are a big-play offense. Take away Baker's best weapons in the deep game and this offense seems unable to adapt. Even their attempts to incorporate short throws into the playbook seem half-hearted considering New England was adequately defending those plays.

One more note here was that New England was able to play well despite the humidity.

Rewatching the game on tape, it's clear you need some variety of capable receivers at your disposal if you intend on winning against these Patriots. Led by the likes of Christian Gonzalez, New England's man coverage defenders are among the best in the league. If you want sustained success against them in the passing game, you need to field enough solid receivers that you can start generating consistent production against their lesser coverage personnel.

On top of that, Drake Maye is just too damn good reading the field. He's way too quick - if you're not willing to gamble on jailbreak blitzes, you're better off just rushing four after him and dropping seven men into coverage. The problem is that if you only rush four players, one of those players damn well better be elite. Otherwise, you're affording the Drake way too much in the pocket. Tampa's biggest problem in this game was that they didn't have any dominant trench players who could harass Maye regularly. When your best pressure player is Yaya Diaby, it just won't end well.

Kudos to Tampa's pass rushers for staying disciplined and not giving Maye any escape lanes from the pocket. But their vanilla pass rush schemes made it too easy for New England's offensive line to hold up in pass protection.

Ravens @ Vikings (+4.5)

Are the Vikings winning with McCarthy or in spite of McCarthy? It can be difficult to tell.

Never mind, the Vikings are definitely losing because McCarthy is just not playing well.

Rams @ 49ers (+4.5)

The Rams are moving the ball at will against this 49er defense. Not having any of your star players while your high-level opponent plays at full strength...it's a recipe for disaster.

On top of that, the Rams have been playing quite a bit of 13 personnel, which has surprisingly worked in their favor as it's forced the 49ers to play less nickel in favor of heavier box defenders.

Steelers @ Chargers (-3.5)

Justin Herbert was a bit shaken to start the game. All those hits he's taken over the past nine or so weeks has been punishing him not only physically, but mentally. He was inaccurate on a number of throws that a passer of his caliber should have been able to make.

The Steelers entire defensive game plan revolves correctly around their pass rush. They want to harangue Justin Herbert whenever possible, even if that means playing mostly man coverage with their questionable secondary.

One thing worth noting - the Chargers have been having some surprising success running the ball. One of the keys to their success have been misdirecting box defenders by sending lead blockers in the wrong direction.

Jalen Ramsey has assumed the role of safety given the injuries in the secondary. It's not his preferred style of play.

Jessie Minter has properly organized his defense to target DK Metcalf in coverage. And it has worked brilliantly. There's a reason the Steelers third-down conversion rate has been downright pathetic tonight.

NFL Pro, SportsRadar, and Pro Football Focus all seem to agree - nobody is more hit and more pressured than Justin Herbert. It'd be worth documenting this somehow in the system. Perhaps a pressure metric of some sort...something to document how badly a quarterback in being harassed in any given year. Maybe I should start by pulling in the quarterback pressure percentage numbers from NFL Pro stats....

Eagles @ Packers (-2.5)

Packers sure like to waste movement sometimes. Why bother faking play-action on what should be obvious passing plays?

Eagles have mostly owned the trenches. It's concerning to me that Micah Parsons hasn't been that effective in this contest. He was supposed to be that foundational element to elevate the Green Bay defense to the next level. So far, he's failed to demonstrate that.

On the Eagles defensive front, the players that have flashed so far have been Moro Ojomo, Jalyx Hunt, Jalen Phillips, Jordan Davis, and Jalen Carter. Only the first two have made impact plays on multiple occasions - I'm starting to see why NFL Pro has credited Jalyx Hunt as this Philadelphia's most prolific pass rusher so far in the season.

Nakobe Dean has impressed me on a number of occasions, especially in the blitz. Speaking of which, Vic Fangio seems to have few qualms blitzing his linebackers here. It helps when you have studs like Quinyon Mitchell and Reed Blankenship holdings things down in the secondary.

Green Bay and/or Jordan Love seem to have their hearts set on the long-developing plays. The problem is these plays are a liability once the offensive line breaks down in pass protection.

After enough harassment, it can be argued that Jordan Love's vision dims a bit, as he's missed open receivers on a number of occasions. Then again, he may be just one of those quarterbacks who commit to one or two pre-snap reads before trying to improvise.

Without Tucker Kraft, Green Bay's air offense has been grounded. To be fair, the Packers were also missing Matthew Golden and Romeo Doubs as well. Christian Watson and Dontavyon Wicks were doing their best to carry the mantle of production in their stead, but they can only do so much given Jordan Love's spotty passing.

Browns @ Jets (+2.5)

Jets still have major issues in pass protection.

First three drives for the Browns, two of them have resulted in three-and-outs. Dillon Gabriel still has accuracy issues. But on the flip side, the remaining drive ended in a touchdown.

Justin Fields only had five yards of passing in the first half. And yet the Jets were still leading 17-14. Very impressive. It's a testament to this idea that bad teams should not be road favorites.

Ravens @ Vikings (+4.5)

Not sure how I feel about this game. JJ McCarthy arguably played better this week compared to last week, despite the Vikings losing outright in what ultimately ended up being a one-sided affair. His offensive line did fail him at critical moments, but it also seems like he needed more time than usual to process information. On top of that, his pocket movement is suspect - too many times did I see him motioning towards a pass rusher. Normally, quarterbacks should either be stepping into the pocket or sidestepping away from pressure.

Still, to JJ's credit, he was able to operate somewhat decently within Kevin O'Connell's system. The scripted throws to open the game were his best plays of the day.

The Vikings have problems along the offensive line. In particular, I want to highlight Christian Darrisaw - I don't think the man is the same caliber of player he once was after returning from injury. I'm seeing him mess up too many times against a Baltimore team that's having its own issues rushing the passer. Something's not right with him and I'm not sure what exactly.

Minnesota should have a pretty capable defensive line considering they have Jonathan Greenard, Andrew Van Ginkel, Dallas Turner, and Javon Hargrave. All of them except Turner did make their presence known across several plays, but none of them turned in what could be considered a domineering performance - Lamar seemed way too comfortable to me.

On top of that, Minnesota's starting linebackers (Ivan Pace and Blake Cashman) looked quite pedestrian in this game.

On Baltimore's side, Roquan Smith is back in elite form.

Unfortunately, Baltimore's pass rush remains a work in progress. I saw nose tackle Travis Jones and safety Kyle Hamilton make a few impact plays - it's fair to say the latter is an elite player, but the former requires more tape to properly assess. NFL Pro statistics seem to indicate this may have been Travis Jones' best game of the season. Mike Green, Dre'Mont Jones, and Kyle Van Noy are names worth keeping an eye on, but it's worth noting the the first two players are still adjusting to the team's style of defense while Van Noy seems like he's been slowed by injuries this season.

Lamar Jackson looks good, especially when he's running some of the more complicated read-option concepts Todd Monken has incorporated into the playbook. More importantly, Jackson is able to process the field pretty quickly, as he seemed to be diagnosing changes in coverage after the snap and adjusting accordingly.

This game really turned on two bad Viking turnovers in the third quarter.