Cowboys @ Lions (-3)

Amon-Ra St. Brown playing in this game was a surprise given his lack of practice time this week. It was thought he was definitely out.

CeeDee Lamb leaving this game in the second quarter may have been the key break Detroit needed to run away with the game in the second half. Not only was he far more successful against man coverage than any other Cowboy receiver, but him leaving the game allowed Detroit's secondary to relocate more coverage resources against George Pickens. With Pickens swamped, no other receiver could really step up - Flournoy and Ferguson were the only other receivers being targeted somewhat consistently besides Pickens, but neither really impressed.

I'm thinking Detroit lacks pass rushers outside Aidan Hutchinson. Alim McNeill is no longer the same force of nature he was last year. Marcus Davenport seems to be working his way back from long-term injury, though he did show some promise late in the game when he spelled Aidan Hutchinson. Al-Quada Muhammad is way too inconsistent to merit blue-chip designation, though he may still end up qualifying as a red-chip pass rusher before season's end.

Dan Campbell really loves to run the ball, doesn't he? Too many times did I see the Lions running the ball into a brick wall on first and second down when it was the passing game that was really bearing fruit for them all along.

Also worth noting that the Cowboys were without their best pass rusher in Jadaveon Clowney.

Texans @ Chiefs (-3.5)

This will be a game to watch. Last year, the Chiefs were able to beat the Texans by a healthy-enough margin. This year, on paper, they should be able to repeat that same feat. Not much has changed for either team. If anything, things have only gotten worse for the Texans as they'll be coming into this game without Tank Dell. But their hope is that they can compensate for Tank's absence through a combination of Dalton Schultz and Jayden Higgins. The problem is that the former is a known quantity and the latter has yet to really debut in top form, although the potential to do so is there. At least their run game looks better now that Woody Marks has been promoted to be the primary tailback on offense, though it's still not impressive.

Meanwhile, Kansas should be better off in this game considering Rashee Rice has unquestionably taken the mantle as the team's most productive pass catcher. Paired with Travis Kelce, Kareem Hunt / Isaiah Pacheco, and a mobile quarterback, Kansas is coming into the game this year with an even better offense.

But here's the problem - early in the game, Kansas loses their then-starting tackle (Wanya Morris) and their elite cornerback (Trent MacDuffie). The lost of McDuffie hurts, but that offensive line is now without three starters as well as a second stringer who played an important role. I'm not sure the Kansas offense remains effectively operational anymore against this Houston defensive front.

Meanwhile, Houston's offensive line has remained remarkably healthy over the season and may actually be competent given they're holding up in pass protection now against two teams on the road. What they're struggling with is with the blitz, but that's as much on Stroud and the offensive coaching as it is on the line.

Without Trent McDuffie, Nico Collins is out there running around buck naked.

Kansas loves its inside zone runs. Not sure why it took me so long to document this, but it needs to be noted.

Chris Jones and the blitzers have absolutely taken over Houston's offense.

Houston probably has the best secondary in the league. Jalen Pitre, Kamari Lassiter, and Derek Stingley Jr have been beastly in coverage. I suspect Derek Stingley has shut down Rashee Rice for much of the game.

Mahomes is clearly injured. His knee is clearly banged up.

Jayden Higgins with two absolute clutch catches in critical moments.

Hunter and Anderson has flashed in important moments. More importantly, the both of them have done good work constricting space and forcing Mahomes to pass from a tight pocket.

Bears @ Packers (-5.5)

Last year's main game between these two teams would imply the Bears are being criminally underrated. If anything, Chicago has dramatically improved this year in terms of coaching and offensive playmakers - the Packers haven't done much outside of their acquisition of Micah Parsons. So if Chicago was minutes away from upsetting Green Bay last year, one can only stand to reason that the Bears should outright win this time around, even if the venue is different. All the different ways Chicago leveled up over the year more than outweighs whatever benefit Green Bay can squeeze from playing at home. Even if the Packers are playing this game a bit more motivated than what one would expect, I still expect the Bears to cover.

Parsons singlehandedly killed a Bears drive in the first quarter.

I don't think the Bears can stop the running game alone with their defensive line. Packers are just abusing them upfront. And even on passing plays, the pressure isn't really there.

Packers are ruthlessly attacking these bootleg concepts by blitzing off the edge. Not only that, but they're owning the line of scrimmage.

Can these Bears not operate in freezing weather, even though they themselves should be a cold-weather team?

These jet sweeps have been paying dividends against the Bears defensive line.

Christian Watson has been sensational in this game. The Packers might have an elite receiver on their hands, something that was desperately needed ever since Tucker Kraft was lost for the season.

The Bears are now just running better plays in the second half - no more uninspired runs on first or second downs. On top of that, Caleb seems sharper with his throws as he made a few tough throws against tight coverage. Were these Bears still just hung over from the game last week?

Just for the purposes of memorandizing - this spread was just...so bizarre. It's December and they're in control of the division. So why is Green Bay giving away seven points here as a decisive favorite? If you were to judge both teams by the spread and nothing but the spread, you'd be convinced the Packers are significantly better than the Bears, especially in terms of record. I still think the spread is a great way to compare the relative perception of both teams with respect to one another, but there are times when it dislocates with reality. And the reality here is that the Packers saw the Bears as equal in footing, regardless of what the oddsmaker were saying. If that's true, then the "real" spread would have been much lower and the complacency score would go negative, which would indicate that Green Bay would be coming into this contest far more motivated than their opponent.

Chicago gambling with the blitz, considering it hasn't worked out for them on multiple plays.

The Packers were clearly fired up. Green Bay really wanted this win.

Rams @ Cardinals (+8.5)

This is interesting. Last year's game between these two would have you believe these two clubs are going to be clawing at one another in an ugly affair. And if that's the case, Arizona should be the right side here spread-wise...especially because the team upgraded at quarterback several weeks ago when they handed over the reins of the offense to Jacoby Brissett.

Rams repeatedly hitting Jacoby Brissett early as expected. How much more abuse can the man take?

Last year, the Cardinals fought the Rams tough. This year....what happened? Yikes....did injury really brutalize the Cardinals that much?

Jared Verse has been an absolute demon in this game. A definitive blue-chip pass rusher. His impact has been noted on several separate plays in the first half alone.

Josh Sweat not playing that many snaps in this game. Looks like his limited practice time over the week was indicative of a slowdown in his performance.

On top of that, Mack Wilson's absence is still felt to this day. Cody Simon just isn't an adequate replacement. And when you run a heavy front that often leaves a single linebacker in the box, you need a stud to anchor that box, especially when you hack horses in the pass rush.

Clayton Adams is sorely missed from this offense. Without him, this offensive line has regressed into one of the worst this season.

Seahawks @ Falcons (+8)

Leave it to Atlanta to try and insist on shadowing JSN in man coverage. Darnold is having too easy a time just pitching the ball to him as he's crosses across the field.

Atlanta's offensive line is a bit of a travesty.

Honestly, the key difference here in this game is that Seattle takes care of all the little details and plays a brand of football that doesn't tolerate mistakes, laziness, or a lack of discipline. Atlanta would like to believe it practices the same brand of football, but it doesn't - Raheem Morris built a shithole organization that doesn't encourage good habits, let alone a commitment to excellence. All the little details and fine points that good coaches go out of their way to handle are ignored in Atlanta under Raheem's watch. Balls are dropped or mishandled, blocks are blown on special teams and offense, players fail to adequately communicate, inept coaches remain gainfully employed, hot routes are nonexistent, the best players on the team have yet to live up to their potential....the Falcons are a diseased organization.

Seattle's complacency completely wore off in the second half. Interesting. Once the complacency wore off, what we saw last year is manifesting this year - Seattle is nuking Atlanta. Yet another instance of complacency theory being wrong, albeit only partially. If the game last year never happened, would Atlanta still be getting blown out? It can be argued (although without much confidence admittedly) that Seattle playing this same Atlanta team last year gives them a strategic advantage here in that Mike Macdonald is somewhat aware of what Raheem Morris and his schmuck of an offensive coordinator like to do on offense.

On top of that, Jalon Walker leaving the game early may have left the Falcons without their (possibly?) best pass rusher, so that needs to be factored into the grand scheme of things here.

Colts @ Jaguars (+1.5)

And Daniel Jones' leg finally gave way. His season is over. I knew it was only a matter of time. Dr. David Chau is way too optimistic with his injury assessments on quarterbacks some times. Philips Rivers set the bar way too high with his pain tolerance.

Then again, it seems like Daniel Jones has an achilles rupture. Whether that relates in part to his fractured leg remains to be seen.

Devin Lloyd has been a major difference maker in this contest so far.

Trevor Lawrence is so frustrating at times. He's a mixed bag when it comes to accuracy. The Jaguars need taller X-style receivers to compensate for his lack of precision. Maybe that's the reason why Tim Patrick has been remarkably successful in this style of offense.

Bengals @ Bills (-5.5)

Brady is correct - the light snow makes it easier for quarterbacks as pass rushers need to slow down. But the snow is just light enough that it doesn't really hamper the quarterbacks much in their passing.

The Bills required two major fourth-down conversions to finally score their first touchdown. And even those fourth downs were drawn out plays that needed improvisation.

Al Golden's refusal to send the blitz might be helping coverage, but Josh Allen is way too comfortable back there.

Buffalo's offense finally adjusted in the second half by concentrating more on short plays.

Two horrific interceptions by Joe Burrow (including one returned for a pick-six) might give Buffalo a ridiculously lucky cover. I'm disgusted.

Never mind, Joe Burrow was able to drive it down the field for a touchdown just to barely nail the cover. Cincinnati definitely played strong enough to earn the cover here. But two strange interceptions at the line of scrimmage doomed the Bengals. Turnovers are brutal and that's part of the Bills secret sauce when it comes to dominating at home.

Steelers @ Ravens (-6.5)

The Steelers have been making some serious hay with these go routes to Metcalf.

Isaiah Likely with another brutal drop to kill the Ravens here.

Brendan Eccols may be a blue-chip player for the Steelers when all is said and done.

This Steelers offense is trash. It still runs through DK Metcalf. It's just that Metcalf is now running the go routes he loves so much, so Pittsburgh actually generated some value from that.

Baltimore doesn't have much of a pass rush outside of Dre'Mont Jones. And even then, the man is red-chip at best.

Aaron Rodgers is still quite mobile for an old man. I suppose when you're not under any real threat of duress, Rodgers is smart enough to hold the ball until a receiver breaks open in the secondary.

I suspect Pittsburgh is running out heavier personnel against Baltimore as part of a collective effort to limit Derrick Henry. And without a healthy Lamar running around and taking advantage of the slower personnel, the Ravens offense has actually been stymied.

Even with the heavy personnel, the Ravens have chewed off some successful runs against them, including a major run from Keaton Mitchell. In the fourth quarter, Derrick Henry was remarkably successful.

Something is up with Baltimore's passing game. I'm not sure what, but it seems like the Ravens lack a definitively reliable vector on offense. Mark Andrews and Zay Flowers have made some catches in some key moments, but the production hasn't been consistent enough for my liking. I'll consider them for red-chip designation.

Saints @ Buccaneers (-8.5)

This game should have been a complacency game. The fact that the Saints are on the cusp of pulling off an unbelievable upset is testament to that. What did I miss here?

Eagles @ Chargers (+3)

The biggest thing here is whether Justin Herbert's surgically operated hand will impede him here. I am going to say that Herbert's biggest concern will be getting the ball out quicker than 2.5 seconds against this respected Eagles defensive front.

The fact that Herbert is still running the ball like a madman late in the game tells you all you need to know about their level of preparation or the caliber of their skill players. Nobody is getting loose. No clever motion or new formations to spring players open quickly. Greg Roman remains one of the league's worst coordinators for this reason.

Luckily for the Chargers, Jalen Hurts has been notoriously bad. As my tape from the first Giants game attested to, Hurts has seriously regressed this season. Without a top-shelf running game to mask his deficiencies, this Eagles offense is trash.

Omarion Hampton is a liability in pass protection, it seems like. He cannot hold up against either of the Eagles linebackers whenever they blitz.

Dallas Goedert may be the only blue-chip skill player on Philadelphia's offense this year. A far cry from last year when the Eagles touted at least three blue-chip players on their offensive roster.

Also, the lack of a running game is concerning given that this is a Greg Roman offense and a Jim Harbaugh regime.

Jordan Davis and Jordan Phillips are some good run defenders for this Eagles defensive front.

Rewatching this game, it's clear Jesse Minter and the Chargers defense have a beat on the Eagles playbook. The way various members of their defense seem to anticipate some of the routes that receivers are going to run is what inclines me to think that way.

Khalil Mack has been fantastic defending against counter run plays. Twice has he killed the Eagles on their attempts to run linemen against his direction.

Disruption Numbers

Chargers

• Odafe Oweh - 1 ID, 1 CD
• Da'Shawn Hand - 0.5 RD
• Denzel Perryman - 0.5 RD
• Derwin James - 1 ID, 1 RD
• Tuli Tuipulotu - 2 ID, 2 FD, 2 HT
• Khalil Mack - 2 ID, 1 RD, 1 HT
• Daiyon Henley - 1 FD, 1 HT