Falcons @ Buccaneers (-5.5)
Baker is unsettled in the pocket. Often, he's the one that's inviting pressure with his erratic movement in the pocket.
Kyle PItts cannot block the end man on running sets. It's disappointing and limits his ceiling, especially considering his receiving numbers have been ho-hum for much of the season.
Tampa's played a questionable game here, even if they win. Critical drops from the Falcons and a number of defensive penalties to sustain their offensive drives really aided them here.
Haason Reddick came up with what may have been a season-saving sack of Kirk Cousins. Finally, the man starts paying dividends.
Apparently not....the Falcons came away with a win on a last-second field goal.
Panthers @ Saints (+2.5)
This will be an interesting test for my strategy hypothesis. Given that these two teams faced one another only five weeks ago and not much has changed, the Panthers should walk away with the win in this contest. The biggest changes is that the Saints are down their starting safety in Justin Reid and Chris Olave might be a bit healthier coming into this game compared to the game before. Olave was only in the game on about half the offensive snaps, although it remains to be seen whether Kellen Moore deliberately limited his snap count in order to run the ball more. In that first Carolina game, I noticed Kellen ran the ball more than he passed it.
Then again, the run/pass ratio trended the same way when they played Tampa Bay last week too. But the one thing he seems to have incorporated in his playbook since the Carolina game has been the designed quarterback run - Tyler Shough willfully running the ball last week was instrumental to their win. That might be the single biggest difference between this game and their last game. Well, that and the complacency difference - the Saints were going up against a Carolina team that was fat and happy coming off a surprising win against the Green Bay Packers at the time.
It's worth keeping an eye on Tashaun Gipson going into the future. He looks like a promising pass rusher emerging late for the Panthers.
The Panthers have serious coverage issues along the middle of their field. Which shouldn't be much of a surprise given the lack of talent among their safety and linebacker position groups.
I think I know where I went wrong here - I expected Carolina to have the complete edge here given these two teams just played several weeks ago. But that game was just Tyler Shough's second-ever start in the NFL. Now that he's had more than a month's worth of experience, Shough is playing with more confidence and mastery of the playbook. Carolina was essentially playing a better version of the Saints quarterback from their first match.
Ravens @ Bengals (+2.5)
For the same reasons listed above, the Ravens should come away here with a victory. In fact, complacency was a large part of the reason why the Bengals won in such domineering fashion. That being said, it does concern me that Baltimore is lacking juice along its defensive front. For the first time in a long while, the Ravens do not have a blue-chip defensive lineman. Dre'Mont Jones is the closest they have to a good pass rusher and even then it's questionable whether he deserves red-chip designation.
Thankfully, Baltimore still has pretty good coverage and run support personnel in the backfield, so that should help a bit with the lack of pass rush. Still, when these two teams danced just a few weeks, the Bengals blasted them outright by 19 points. That entire deficit cannot be explained through complacency alone. So maybe this game would be a good example of a game we could use to quantify the additional edges losing teams gain in a rematch.
This game is telling me that I'm underestimating the rematch edge. I need to assess the game log to see if Cincinnati lost anybody mid-game, but it seems like Baltimore had a much bigger edge than what I initially presumed. This game is to be watched carefully on film.
Cardinals @ Texans (-9.5)
From an injury point of view, the Texans here are a much better bet. Arizona is beat up across the board - they're missing two pieces on their offensive line, they're missing the services of one of their better receivers in Marvin Harrison, the secondary will be operating with no depth, and the linebacking corps just isn't the same without Mack Wilson out there. And yet, my numbers tell me Houston is expected to be playing this game very complacently.
So what matters more here ultimately? The horrifically undermanned defense or the fact that Houston would be coming into this game hungover.
So much for this idea that interconference matches invite the favorite to play more complacently. More importantly though, injuries outweighed any complacency benefit Arizona may have derived. It was only a matter of time - a quarterback can only absorb so many hits before his play devolves.
Dolphins @ Steelers (-3.5)
It's worth watching to assess the Steeler defense without its best player in T.J. Watt. Also it's worth watching to see whether Miami's offense has truly turned a leaf.
Bills @ Patriots (+1)
Mike Vrabel coming off the bye has been covering the spread and outright winning every single time. Can he continue that this year?
I need to see how the Patriots blew a 21-point lead here in the second half. Clearly, the Bills adjusted spectacularly.
Greg Rousseau is showing up on tape, though he hasn't quite made an impact just yet.
Shaq Thompson has been a point of weakness in the linebacking corps. The Patriots seem to field their best runs whenever they run towards him. In fact, I would say much of the success New England saw in the first half was predicated off their ground game.
Mike Onwenu might be a point of weakness along that New England offensive front.
Dawson Knox and Greg Rousseau are putting up season-best performances in this game. What's become clear to me is that New England has issues covering tight ends, especially with Robert Spillane out. Jack Gibbons and Christian Elliss aren't good enough replacements for Spillane.
DISRUPTION COUNT:
Patriots
- Christian Elliss - 1 ID, 1 FD
- Jack Gibbons - 1 FD, 1 HT
- Harold Landry - 1 ID, 1 HT
- Christian Barmore - 1 ID, 1 FD
- Cory Durden - 2 ID
- Chaisson - 1 FD
- Anfernee Jennings 1 HT
Bills
- Greg Rousseau - 1 RD, 1 ID, 1 FD
- Larry Ogunjobi - 1 RD
- Joey Bosa - 1 ID
- Matt Milano - 1 ID, 1 FD
- DaQuan Jones - 1 ID
New England is not getting any meaningful pressure on Josh Allen. Not to mention the blitzing is lacking. Even though I don't have disruption numbers from their first game earlier in the season, NFL Pro is indicating that Patriot defenders were getting closer to Josh Allen in the pocket than in this game.
I suspect a game like this only happens when you have a bye wizard like Mike Vrabel coming out of break going up against a team with a significant strategic edge of their own. In the end, the difference here likely came down to the Patriots missing out on the services of Robert Spillane and Milton Williams - neither player is elite, but they are likely better than the men who replaced them on the field.
Also another thing that needs to be noted - the Patriots went from running the ball on the majority of downs in the first half from passing the ball almost exclusively in the second half. Why they abandoned the running game is an absolute mystery to me. It's all the more baffling when you consider their sole touchdown in the second half came on an explosive TreVeyon Henderson run. Drake Maye was honestly struggling to drum up yardage through the air alone. And yet the fact that this didn't stop the Patriots from committing wholeheartedly to the passing game in the second half is baffling. Perhaps they were trying to stay one step ahead of the Bills? Regardless, to go from a 60/40 run/pass split in the first half to a 15/85 split in the second half was just spectacularly dumb.
Browns @ Bears (-7.5)
Bears are cooking with a great ground game and bootleg plays to Colston Loveland.
Dennis Allen isn't holding back on the blitzes. Smart man, considering Cleveland's fielding a ragtag offensive line and Shedeur can't be trusted to protect himself in the pocket.
But Odunze is now out of the game and Caleb is somewhat injured. So it'll be interesting to see what happens now. For whatever it's worth, having Caleb play drop-back football on fourth down wasn't the wisest move.
Chargers @ Chiefs (-6)
This is an interesting game. The spread has grown, but justifiably. Chargers are actually expected to come into this game complacent despite being underdogs. And the way they played last week only cements this idea that the Chiefs are rightfully favored. Yet this spread has gotten a bit too ridiculous for my liking. Can they cover this big spread even if complacency favors them slightly? The state of their offensive line is still pretty woeful.
This Chargers defense needs to be commended for the fight they're putting up, even when the offense has found itself in a bit of a permanent rut. Derwin James has been dominant. Tuli Tulipalotu and even Odafe Oweh have been flashing as well.
Losing Chris Jones will hurt bad. Nobody matters more to this defense than Chris Jones.
Packers @ Broncos (+2.5)
Complacency is heavily in Denver's favor. So let's see if things pan out for them here today.
UPDATE: This was not a fair test of complacency theory. Packers lost key personnel on both sides of the ball early enough in the game where it could have certainly impacted the final outcome of the Broncos winning. Still....I'll be honest, I didn't like what I saw from the Broncos. On top of that, I don't think Green Bay was playing as complacently as I expected. Which means that I likely overestimated the impact of last week's win on this team's psyche.
Courtland Sutton is Denver's definitive primary receiver and potentially a blue-chip receiver too.
Without Zach Tom fully healthy, it'll be interesting to watch if Denver can now mount pressure consistently on Jordan Love.
Riley Moss is such a liability as the cornerback opposite Pat Surtain. Vance's running him out there without much help or improvement is concerning. On top of that, no other member of the secondary has really stood out much either.
It's possible Green Bay has no pass rusher worth a damn outside of Micah Parsons. And if Parsons is done for the season, their defense presents no real threat. Such a shame too. The Packers have some solid talent in the back seven, led by Xavier McKinney and Quay Walker.
DISRUPTION COUNT:
Broncos
- Zach Allen - 3 ID, 6 HT, 0.5 CD
- Talanoa Hufanga - 1 RD
- Brandon Jones - 1 ID
- Uwazurike - 2 FD
- Nik Bonitto - 0.5 ID, 1 FD, 1 RD
- Jonathan Cooper - 1 ID, 0.5 FD, 0.5 CD
- John Franklin-Myers - 1.5 ID, 2.5 FD, 1 HT
- Malcolm Roach - 2 ID, 0.5 RD
- Dre Greenlaw - 0.5 RD
- Jonah Elliss - 0.5 ID, 1 FD
- Alex Singleton - 0.5 ID, 1 HT
- D.J. Jones - 1 FD, 1 RD
- Dondrea Tillman - 1 FD
Lions @ Rams (-6)
The 13 personnel play action will be taking the league by storm next year given all the success the Rams are having with that concept this season.
Amik Robertson has been sensational so far for the Lions.
Faking the bootleg to juice more yards for the tailback is a stroke of brilliance from McVay.
It took two fourth-down conversions for the Rams to drive to the end zone on their first scoring drive.
DISRUPTION COUNT:
Lions
Al-Quadin Muhammad - 1 ID
Aidan Hutchinson - 1 CD
Rams
Byron Young - 1 RD
Jets @ Jaguars (-11.5)
These Jaguars are far better than they look. Not only that, but Brian Thomas Jr. and Trevor Lawrence are finally bonding. Still, it's pretty clear Jacoby Meyers is Trevor's favored weapon here. Even more reassuring, Trevor Lawrence is now willing to throw outside the numbers.
It honestly seems to me the critical difference between these two teams is execution. The Jaguars can actually execute whereas the Jets and their offensive line just aren't following through on some of their more exotic plays. It seems like the offense is purposefully leaving players unblocked on certain plays or failing to communicate properly. Whatever the reason, the Jets are not able to cash in on any of their more exotic plays whereas Jacksonville is able to execute.
Both quarterbacks seem to be regressing somewhat now that scripted plays are no longer available in the second quarter.
A botched penalty took a punt return touchdown away from the Jets. Such a shame.
Dolphins @ Steelers (-3.5)
Bad play call by Mike Macdonald, calling pistol on 3rd and 1.
Colts @ Seahawks (-13.5)
The Colts offensive line is not giving up that much pressure despite what Drew Dinsick claims. The times they have let up pressure is usually when they rely on tight ends or tailbacks in pass protection. On a handful of occasions have the interior guards let up pressure against the Colts, but that's about it.
Complacency matters....but not as much as other determining factors like injuries, rematch edges, or poor quarterbacking. All these factors can negate complacency. This week, the only game that validated complacency theory was the Colts/Seahawks game. The most noteworthy about that game is that not only it had a high floor with a hard score of 6, but it had insanely high potential with a soft score of 9. If you applied fibonacci scoring there, that would mean the Colts could have accrued a total of 54 points of handicap (incredibly unlikely)!
On top of that, I think as the season goes on, the spreads become so much more accurate. Oddsmakers should have a much better grasp of the gulfs between good teams and bad teams. So this complacency metric might need to be something we take with a grain of sand heading into the last month of the season.
In survivor tournaments, avoid picking teams with cluster injuries or stand to have injury risk.
I'm starting to think morale is yet another factor to consider here in the grand scheme of things. It would explain why lowly teams constantly lose despite getting some complacency in their favor. It would also explain how the Chiefs and some other Super Bowl losers completely collapsed after losing it all.
