Rams @ Seahawks (PK) [Thursday]
On paper, this game is Seattle's to win. Not only are they coming into this match healthier compared to their first dance with the Rams several weeks prior, but their opponent will be missing some talent on both sides of the ball - Davonte Adams and Braden Fiske are both expected to not suit up for the game.
So when you combine this health advantage with the natural strategic advantage a team gets from facing an opponent that's beaten them just recently, the Seahawks should win.
Another thing worth noting is that Rashid Shaheed has had more weeks operating in Seattle's offense, so he should be able to contribute more in the passing game this time around.
I think Sam Darnold is a bit shook. He's a bit slower with his passes and he's almost too eager to take off and run (futilely). Then again, it may be by design given that the Rams seem to have a spy set on him.
The Rams are actually running the ball somewhat successfully against this Seahawk defense. Their runners are consistently hammering down hard through the middle of this Seattle defensive front, through Byron Young and Leonard Williams.
What happened to this vaunted Seattle defense? Stafford and his offense have netted up over 200 yards in their first four drives alone. Seattle's pass rushers are barely able to pressure Stafford, let alone sniff him.
It seems like Stafford is looking towards Puca most of the time to see if he's open. If he finds Puca is bracketed in coverage, he's just going to throw to the man who's been left open.
I think Chris Shula has figured out that if you attack the structure of this Seattle offense, Sam Darnold cannot adjust. It may be the reason why Klint Kubiak is restraining Darnold from throwing more than ten yards or so downfield.
For three quarters, the Rams were outright dominating. It was clear that I overestimated whatever strategic edge the Seahawks were supposed to have in this game. A kick return for a touchdown by Rasheed Shahid completely changed the momentum of this game. Now they're on the cusp of a miraculous comeback. Regardless of the outcome, it's absolutely clear that the Rams were the better team from a strategy and tactics point of view.
Disruption Count
Rams
- Jared Verse: 3 ID, 1 FD
- Byron Young: 1 ID
- Kobie Turner: 2 CD
- Nate Landman: 1 FD
- Poona Ford: 1 ID
Seahawks
- Uchenna Nwosu: 1 ID, 1 HT
- Leonard Williams: 2 ID, 1 HT
- DeMarcus Lawrence: 1 ID, 1 FD, 1 HT
- Nick Emmenwori: 2 ID
- Byron Murphy: 1 ID, 1 FD
- Ty Okada: 1 ID
I think the rematch thesis has legs, but only when one team decisively wins over another team. In a game that was as close as the Rams and Seahawks in their first match, that thesis doesn't hold much weight.
Rewatching the game, it's clear Stafford was able to generate yards in the first half by taking advantage of the gaps in coverage whenever the Seahawks would invoke an overload blitzes as well as taking advantage of the the safeties getting distracted by Puca Nacua running routes around the middle of the field. Those overload blitzes were very effective in the first match because it nullified the lateral plays and bootlegs that the Rams favor on offense - McVay and Stafford naturally adjusted in the rematch.
Eagles @ Commanders (+7)
I think the relationship between Hurts and Brown has been fixed. No Eagle is being targeted more in the passing game than Brown. With A.J. Brown back in the fold and DeVonta Smith, the Eagles should have two premium receivers in tow for the postseason. Combined with a blue-chip tight end in Dallas Goedert and a quarterback who can scramble, Philadelphia has a complete-enough offense.
This is a horrible Eagles offense. Coming out in the second half, it's flags that's helping to sustain their drive. Even though Washington is mounting very little pressure against Hurts and out there playing defense with a secondary thatched together with string, it doesn't seem to matter much - Philadelphia is still struggling to matriculate the ball.
Jacob Martin has had two key disruptions in this game so far.
Jaelan Phillips finally shaking his pass blocker loose led Josh Johnson to throw a sloppy pass to Philly's secondary.
Jordan Davis is definitely Philadelphia's best run defender.
Packers @ Bears (PK)
The Bears are really hammering the running plays hard in the first half. It makes sense too, given the heavy winds and the loss of two critical skill players.
Why are the Bears playing the passing game so aggressively with Malik Willis under center for the Packers? Frankly, there should be more players in the box for these Bears. Chicago is getting killed by the Packers on these runs. And these runs only help Malik Willis settle into a groove here.
Jordan Love getting knocked out early negates any rematch edge the Bears have in this game, at least on defense.
It worries me that without Luther Burden and Rome Odunze, I don't see the offense doing much in the passing game.
Malik Willis has been fantastic. To be fair, Chicago's defense has very little idea of what to expect, which probably explains the level of success he's having. Likewise, he's spent the past few years in Green Bay, so he's comfortable operating in Matt LaFleur's system. In fact, now that I think about it, the LaFleur system is actually friendly to quarterbacks who aren't great at dropback football.
Green Bay has been blitzing Caleb Williams more. But the sad thing is it's working, which baffles me. Chicago should have expected more blitzing given that Green Bay is no longer with its single best pass rusher. But it doesn't seem like the Bears have given Caleb any easy answers...which is honestly bizarre considering they have two solid tight ends and tailbacks capable of catching the ball.
It seems like Chicago's offensive game plan was to hammer the run early and often and then use play-action to set up intermediate and long-distance passes in spite of the heavy wind. But the Packers' increased usage of the blitz really killed frustrated Caleb. It also helps that the kid's favorite receivers (Odunze and Luther Burden) aren't out there running routes. Olamide Zaccheus is a decent depth receiver, but nowhere close to being a reliable option.
DJ Moore is not a reliable vector in this offense. A man of his talent should be a red-chip receiver at minimum. But I don't see that in this game. UPDATE: Never mind, I take that back. It was the deep touchdown bomb to him that sealed this game for Chicago. What a lucky win. If only Green Bay didn't bobble the ball on that onside kick, the Packers would be in firm control of the division.
Disruption Count
Packers
- Rashan Gary: 4 ID
- Lucas Van Ness: 1 ID
Bears
- Montez Sweat: 1 CD
Chargers @ Cowboys
Fantastic catch by Quentin Johnston for the touchdown.
Keenan Allen is a definitive vector on offense for the Chargers.
Justin Herbert's running game has been sensational, but dangerous given the number of hits he absorbs on a regular basis. I don't know how he does it.
I'm starting to realize that the Cowboys are terribly overrated. When you lose a game as a sizable favorite despite not having many reasons to be complacent, take that as a sign that the team might be overvalued.
Bills @ Browns (-10.5)
Greg Rousseau has shown up in critical moments, especially in the fourth quarter. It'll be worth watching the tape on him and Joey Bosa to do a comparison.
Passing Disruption Numbers (Bills)
- Greg Rousseau: 1 ID, 1 FD, 2 HT, 2.5 CD
- Matt Milano: 1 HT
- Joey Bosa: 3 ID
- DaQuan Jones: 1 ID
- Deone Walker: 1 ID, 1 HT
- Jordan Poyer: 0.5 CD
Steelers @ Lions (-6.5)
Alex Highsmith has been a demon so far in this game. Early second quarter and I'm recording at least two run disruptions and one quarterback hit.
Al-Quada Muhammad can be credited with an initial disruption on Hutchinson's second sack.
Kenneth Gainwell is such a weapon in both the ground and passing games.
I need to analyze the Steelers game plan. But I literally think their strategy was death by a thousand cuts. Just chip away at Detroit with short-yardage plays until the defense is exhausted. Then use the ground game to punch this game away.
The Lions depleted secondary didn't help things either - their second-string safeties weren't that great in run defense. They really miss Brian Branch.
Rewatching the Steelers defense tape, I noticed that the middle linebacker would often drop back deep in coverage, as if he was operating by Tampa-2 coverage principles.
The Steelers are playing five-man defensive fronts for two reasons detailed below:
- Whenever Detroit's offensive linemen start shifting in one direction on a zone-running play, Pittsburgh's backside edge defender isn't sliding with them. Instead, the Steelers seem to have taught their edge rushers to attack the pocket instead even on these running plays. It's working spectacularly so far - the quarterback and tailback don't shift along with the offensive line after the snap (likely to give the tailback leverage should he decide to immediately run counter to the zone motion), so they're actually exposed during the handoff period. Detroit might try to compensate by pulling a guard out to protect against the backside defender, but the problem is the guard usually isn't quick enough to keep the Steelers defender out of the backfield, especially when you have the edge defender lined out wide in this bear front. Hence, you're going to see quite a few run disruptions in the stats below.
- When a slow receiver motions from one side of the field to the other, it might be a tell that the Lions are running a wide-receiver screen. I say this because I saw Alex Highsmith deliberately reacting to this by moving in a way to bat down the quick pass. If the Steelers have indeed picked up on this tell, then you have one more reason why you would have a five man front - so that you can flare out the two edge defenders in order to bat down Goff's quick passes in these situations.
Why are these Lions playing so shook on offense? Skill players are dropping passes left and right.
Disruption Numbers (Steelers 1st Half)
- Keanu Benton - 1 CD, 1 RD, 1 HT
- Cameron Heyward - 1 HT, 2 FD
- Esezi Otomeyo - 1 ID
- Alex Highsmith - 1 HT, 2 RD, 2 ID
Jaguars @ Broncos (-3)
Why is Sean Payton eager to roll Bo Nix out to the right half of the field on some snaps?
It seems like the Broncos are obsessively throwing blitzes at Trevor Lawrence expecting him to mess up. Surprisingly, not only is he avoiding mistakes, but he's making some fantastic plays and even adjusting pass protection pre-snap when he picks up on these blitzes.
Bo Nix was absolutely dreadful, even in garbage time. WIth the amount of weaponry at his disposal, he shouldn't be as bad as he was. But he was clearly missing on what should have been completed passes, especially as the Jaguars were unable to mount much pressure against him. The cherry on top was the botched handoff to his tailback that essentially sealed the game away for Jacksonville in the third quarter.
Patrick Mekari might be a liability in pass protection. Then again, he may have came into the game somewhat injured.
Nik Bonitto hasn't played as many snaps as he normally should have in this game. He may have been playing injured in this game. Also worth noting - Danny Striggow of the Jaguars was sidelined with injury. It's not known if he'll return in time for the postseason though...
Both of these offenses are remarkably similar in the concepts they employ - dagger routes, receiver screens, fast breaks out of the huddle, faking deep/intermediate throws only to lob the ball laterally to a skill player behind the line of scrimmage...
Parker Washington and Jakobi Meyers are red chip players with blue chip potential.
Disruption Numbers
Jaguars
- Devin Lloyd - 1 ID
- Trayvon Walker - 1 RD, 1 ID
Broncos
- Jonathan Cooper - 1 ID, 1 HT
- Nik Bonitto - 1 ID
- Riley Moss - 1 FD
- John Franklin-Myers - 1 CD, 1 HT, 1 ID
- Alex Singleton - 1 ID, 1 FD
- Que Robinson - 1 HT, 1 FD
- Dondrea Tillman - 1 ID
- Zach Allen - 3 HT
- Malcolm Roach - 1 CD, 1 HT
Patriots @ Ravens (-3)
Outside of Dre'Mont Jones and Kyle Van Noy, Baltimore has no capable pass rusher. And of those two, only Jones is worthy of red-chip designation.
Likewise, the Patriots are struggling to harass Lamar Jackson with just their base personnel. It's possible New England is playing conservative in order to guarantee that Lamar doesn't have an easy exit from the pocket, but it's still disappointing.
Stefon Diggs is a red-chip pass catcher.
It's an age-old story - pressure is Drake Maye's undoing. But the sad thing here is that the Ravens are among the league's worst at rushing the passer. Although their blitzes have been remarkably effective. And it's these blitzes that have been working well against Drake Maye, for some weird reason. He should be whipping Baltimore on these blitzes, but the hot reads and quick passes are not there.
It's worth noting that New England's rushing game is nonexistent, especially without Trayveon Henderson. Sure, a part of that can be blamed on the offensive line being without a few starters, but the lack of any successful rushing plays for long periods of time is seriously concerning.
The flags, the sloppy fake punt, the botched field goal snap, and the inability to handle Baltimore's blitzes tells me New England didn't really prepare much for this game. Which shocks me. I thought Mike Vrabel went out of his way to impress in primetime moments.
Finally, a second receiver stepped up - Kyle Williams, a receiver who is way down the depth chart.
The officiating has been unusually biased against the Patriots. The Patriots aren't getting the benefit of the calls and the referees missed an incredibly obvious pass interference late in the game that would have left New England's offense right at the doorstep of the end zone. I wonder if Vrabel's comments last week really irked them?
As is tradition, Baltimore blows the leads late in yet another crucial game. Something is inherently off with the team and I'm not quite sure what. Maybe the John Harbaugh era needs to come to an end.
One critical mistake the Ravens made - not putting Derrick Henry on their last offensive drive. Why?
49ers @ Colts (+6.5)
Philip Rivers has been sensational in his second game from retirement. This playbook fits him like a snug glove.
The 49ers once again exhibiting an inability to pressure the quarterback. Life is too easy so far for Philip Rivers.
Lou Anuramo is a middling defensive coach. For years, I thought he was a definite blue-chip coach, but this Colt defense feels lesser than the sum of its parts. I do get that they're missing their top two cornerbacks, but it's not like those two were lighting the world on fire when they were healthy.
Why is Shane Steichen refusing to run the ball? The run/pass ratio has been absolutely nutty.
The 49ers safeties and linebackers have been particularly effective stopping the run, at least in the first half.
Bryce Huff rushed Rivers just enough that Philip failed to cash in on what would have been a touchdown throw.
The discipline this 49er defense has shown is impressive. Only one accepted penalty against them
Is it possible the Colts defense is playing so bad because Kyle Shanahan is incorporating new concepts into the playbook that haven't been put on tape? Purdy did make a comment tonight about Kyle Shanahan "reaching into his bag."
Here's the thing - the rematch hypothesis works when the end result of a game differs sharply from expectations. And even only then, it only works with respect to what type of expectations were not met. If the first game ended up being a defensive game that went well under the expected total, it's safe to say the rematch should be much higher scoring than expected. Likewise, if a favorite lost decisively in the first game (just like with Cincinnati and Baltimore on Thanksgiving), expect that favorite to have a serious edge in the rematch regardless of spread.
Interestingly enough, the Rams offense played so much better in their rematch against Seattle despite missing the services of their second-best wide receiver Likewise, the Packers played (arguably) much better defense this week in the rematch against the Bears despite being down a blue-chip pass rusher. It didn't matter that Green Bay and Los Angeles won the first match - what mattered more was that both units obviously had so much room to improve from their last outing.
I need to note that Chicago was missing Luther Burden, but Burden wasn't that important a player that the passing offense would fall apart without him. Rome Odunze was also missing in action, but he wasn't there in the first match in Green Bay anyway...
So here's a further refinement of my rematch thesis - in contests between two teams that have played at most eight weeks earlier in the season, the following axiom shall apply. So long as the two teams remain substantially similar in coaching, personnel, and experience, then the outcome of the rematch depends upon the outcome of the earlier contest. The loser from the previous contest is expected to close the scoring differential gap or even outright win. Generally speaking, the greater the original scoring differential relative to oddsmakers' expectations, the greater the expected regression in the rematch. Furthermore, if either team's offense or defense underperformed relative to expectations, then that unit is expected to overperform, especially when the two games are played within five weeks. Note that any regression in scoring differential can be partly mediated by complacency, which is guided by its own set of axioms.
I also need to start using PFF grades to keep better track of teams I don't have enough time to follow. But only use PFF grades as a general benchmark and as a way to measure a player's development over the course of a season.
