Lions @ Vikings (+7)
I think there's something more to be explored here when it comes to morale and momentum. What the Lions are doing today is demonstrating to me that they've given up. And teams like this usually only give up when they've lost any hope for the season. Losing to the Steelers as touchdown favorites that killed hope. But teams lose games all the time as touchdown favorites. What made that loss so devastating was that it killed their playoff hopes, virtually speaking. While not mathematically eliminated, it would take quite a bit of luck for Detroit to end up in the postseason. And to see last year's top seed in the NFC be reduced to praying for a postseason berth may have been too much for this team's waning morale.
Broncos @ Chiefs (+13.5)
Disruption Numbers (Broncos)
- Jonathan Cooper - 1 HT, 1 ID
- Jonah Elliss - 1 CD, 1 FD
- DJ Jones - 2 RD
- Nik Bonitto - 1 HT, 1 FD
- Uwazurike - 1 ID
- Zach Allen - 2 HT
- Dondrea Tillman - 1 HT
My disruption numbers actually match up with NFL Pro's numbers...interesting.
Texans @ Chargers (PK)
CJ Stroud hitting it out of the park on those deep bombs, one to Jayden Higgins and one to Noel. I'm quite certain the Chargers secondary is paying extra attention to Nico Collins, which is opening up opportunities.
The fact that the Chargers have to resort to Bobby Hart, a man that hasn't played tackle meaningfully in three years, is testament to the patchwork nature of their offensive line.
The offense has both teams has been disappointing slow following Houston's first two touchdown drives.
Houston might have serious issues countering the blitz. The Chargers have been making some serious hay spamming the blitz against Stroud. Houston has yet to counter with short passes, screens, bootlegs, or any other concepts designed to take advantage of over-aggression.
Tarheeb Still has been having a good game in coverage.
Disruption Numbers
Chargers
- Khalil Mack - 1 ID, 1 RD
- Teair Tart - 1 FD, 1 RD
- Odafe Oweh - 1.5 ID, 0.5 CD
- Tuli Tuipulotu - 0.5 ID, 0.5 RD
- DaShawn Hand - 1 FD
- Ogbonnia - 0.5 RD
- Bud Dupree - 1 ID
- Daiyon Henley - 1 ID, 0.5 CD
Texans
- Will Anderson - 2 ID, 1 FD, 1 RD
- Danielle Hunter - 1 ID, 1 FD, 1 CD
- Sheldon Rankins - 3 ID, 1 RD, 1 FD
- Denico Autry - 1 ID, 1 FD
- Derek Barnett - 1 FD, 1 CD
Ravens @ Packers (-3.5)
Kingsley Enagbare has flashed on a number of occasions.
Bears @ 49ers (-3.5)
Jake Tonges is standing out in the receiving game, especially with Kittle inactive. Which is great, given Kittle has been injured for the better part of the season and is currently sidelined with injury himself.
Ricky Pearsall has returned back in action tonight, likely as the top receiving option for Brock Purdy.
Austin Booker and Andrew Billings had an opportunity to sack Brock Purdy at a critical moment, but Purdy escaped and threw the ball just as he was about to cross the scrimmage line for a touchdown. Amazing stuff.
Keion White has been having a great night lined up over the center on blitzing downs.
Chicago's passing offense may be defined by Luther Burden and Rome Odunze. Take these two out of the contest and the Bears just aren't as productive over the air.
It's incredible this game has remained as high-scoring as it has over four quarters, despite the halftime break.
Both teams seem to have solid cornerbacks, Chicago in Jaylon Johnson and San Francisco in Deonnodore Lenoir.
Disruption Numbers
Bears
- Montez Sweat - 1 ID
- Austin Booker - 2 ID, 1 FD, 1 CD
- Noah Sewell - 1 RD
- Grady Jarrett - 1 RD
49ers
- Jordan Elliott - 1 ID, 1 FD
- Alfred Collins - 2 FD
- Keion White - 2 ID
- Sam Okuayinonu - 1 ID, 1 FD
- Bryce Huff - 1 ID, 0.5 RD
- Tatum Bethune - 0.5 RD
- Kalia Davis - 1 ID
- Yetur Gross-Matos - 2 FD
Rams @ Falcons (+8.5)
A healthy Atlanta offense under Kirk Cousins is scary. Drake London, Kyle Pitts, and Bijan Robinson are generating significant production together under the stewardship of Kirk Cousins. I'm not sure Michael Penix can do this, though the boy can certainly run. More importantly, what does this say about the schmuck Atlanta hired as the offensive coordinator? I still don't think much of Zac Robinson, but with a smart quarterback at the helm, this offense looks coherent.
The Rams are blowing this game bigly. Without Davante Adams, nobody has quite stepped up as a second passing option. I thought Colby Parkinson might be that other option, but he has yet to show up on tape tonight.
It does make some sense that the Falcons are defensively snuffing the Rams here. Raheem Morris was Sean McVay's defensive coordinator when the Rams won the Super Bowl a few years ago. Few people should (on paper) understand McVay and Stafford better than the defensive mind who sparred with them regularly in practice.
Worth noting for memorandization purposes - Raheem Morris and the offense seem to play very conservatively when they have a decisive lead. It's almost sickening the way their playbook is pared down to nothing but safe runs and a lack of real creativity.
Disruption Numbers (Rams)
- Braden Fiske - 0.5 ID
- Jared Verse - 0.5 ID, 1 HT, 1 RD
- Nate Landman - 1 ID, 1 HT
- Poona Ford - 1 ID, 1 HT
- Byron Young - 3 HT, 0.5 RD
- Tyler Davis - 0.5 RD
- Desjuan Johnson - 1 HT
- Omar Speights - 1 ID
- Kobie Turner - 1 ID, 1 HT
Eagles @ Bills (-2)
Eagles employed some fairly simple passing concepts on their first scoring drive, as Jalen Hurts was able to connect on enough passes to matriculate the football into the end zone.
Philadelphia has keyed in on some of the passing concepts in Buffalo's playbook, notably their concepts designed to create space for slot receivers by using the outside receiver as decoys.
Brandin Cooks has come through on a number of key moments. Strange to see such a journeyman receiver have an impact on this game.
Disruption Numbers
Eagles
- Jalen Carter - 3 ID, 1 CD, 1 FD
- Jalyx Hunt - 1 CD, 1.5 FD, 1 HT
- Moro Ojomo - 0.5 FD, 1 CD, 0.5 HT
- Jaelan Phillips - 1 ID, 1 FD, 2.5 HT
- Zack Baun - 1 ID
- Jihaad Campbell - 1 ID
- Nolan Smith - 3 ID
- Marcus Epps - 1 RD
Bills
- Gregory Rousseau - 1 ID, 1 FD, 0.5 CD
- Cole Bishop - 0.5 RD
- Joey Bosa - 0.5 RD, 1 FD
- Deone Walker - 1.5 RD
- Andre Jones Jr. - 1 FD
- Cam Lewis - 1 HT
- Dorian Williams - 2 ID
- Shaq Thompson - 1 ID, 1 RD
- A.J. Epenesa - 1 ID, 0.5 RD
- Matt Milano - 1 ID, 0.5 CD
Jaguars @ Colts (+4.5)
Disruption Numbers
Jaguars
- Travon Walker - 2 ID, 1 FD, 2 HT, 1 CD, 0.5 RD
- Dawuane Smoot - 0.5 ID, 1 HT
- Josh Hines-Allen - 1 ID, 2 FD, 1 HT
- Devin Lloyd - 1 ID, 1 HT
- DaVon Hamilton - 0.5 RD
- Arik Armstead - 0.5 ID
I think I need to start recording events that normally lead to a shift in morale. If enough of these events occur and point in the same direction, then you have a team with varying degrees of morale, some high and some low. It also allows for episodes of disastrous morale where the team is left in disarray.
The following events signify morale boosting events:
- When a team beats another team few expected them to beat
- When new players break out to become elite contributors on offense or defense
- When a quarterback that the team can rally around takes the reins of the offense away from an underperforming or divisive quarterback
The following events signify events that can depress morale:
- When a team significantly underwhelms relative to expectations against rivals
- When coaches are demoted, but retained anyway
- When playoff hopes are virtually reduced to zero or not within your total control
- When you enter the playoffs just having lost a meaningful game the week before
Note that none of these events are quantified or even given Fibonacci scores (like the scores we use for complacency). I need to record these events but wait for more data over the next couple years before we can smartly quantify any of these events. I do think some Fibonacci score will ultimately apply here, but the numbers we're going to use to start the sequence may be different from the base numbers we use for complacency. On top of that, certain events weigh heavy on teams, like that last bullet point regarding a loss right before the playoffs - morale suffers hard once a team loses a meaningful game right as they enter the postseason. It's also possible that bye weeks reset morale, given that top seeds are not really beholden to that last bullet point. Recess periods seem to calm people down. If anything, it makes sense as we see this time and time again when game scripts shift dramatically following halftime.
