Dolphins @ Bills [Thursday]

This Dolphin defense has started out absolutely uninspired. Jack Jones in particular has been awful. Rasul Douglas isn't much better, but nobody expects much now that he's nothing more than a journeyman cornerback.

Seeing the Dolphins commit so many errors on offense and defense is seriously disheartening. Miami's run defense so far has been horrific. Their pass rush has been next to nonexistant.

Why are they so ardent on establishing the passing game against a Bills defense known as one of the lighter defenses in the league? It's all the more damning considering Matt Milano is sidelined tonight.

Tua is so much more careful with the ball this week. He's no longer forcing throws towards the middle. In fact, he's almost depending way too much on outlet passes to his tailback. The Bills seem to have picked up on that considering they've started clamping down on those swing passes. It's almost as if Tua is playing things way too safe.

The Dolphins have saved some of their best plays for the fourth quarter, apparently. Receiver pitches, dagger routes, Tyreek Hill running some whip routes with timing...interesting stuff.

Pretty amazing to see Miami's defense actually gain more confidence over the course of the game.

Yet more evidence that my complacency theory may be legitimate. With a double-digit spread, a contrast in narratives, and this being a primetime game, Miami had 8 points worth of complacency in its favor. That made all the difference in this game as Miami ultimately went down swinging hard in an attempt to save face.

Jets @ Buccaneers (-6.5)

Sauce Gardner is quickly becoming a point of weakness on this defense. After being targeted heavily in Buffalo last week, he committed an incredibly stupid pass interference penalty on 3rd and 29.

So far, Tampa Bay's offensive line has been failing to hold up in pass protection against this Jets defensive front.

Sterling Shepard has been clutch so far on some critical downs.

These Jets are just so messy. The volatility metric I've developed is having a field day here.

Tyrod Taylor might actually be worse than Justin Fields. Which is quite remarkable. What is this offensive coordinator (Tanner Engstrand) doing? I see no real identity on offense other than a dedication to screwing up whenever possible.

It dawned on me that the stifling heat may be playing a role in this game. I'm feeling a little silly now not taking that into account before making bets on this game.

Even still, I was right to say the Buccaneers were playing this game a tad bit complacent. It wasn't a good game, especially given the way that field goal was blocked for a touchdown. But when Tampa Bay puts in the effort, this New York team didn't stand much a chance.

Tyrod Taylor is a poor quarterback, though with a week of actual experience under center, maybe Taylor will improve next week (assuming Fields cannot still play.

Falcons @ Panthers (+5.5)

This Tet McMillan kid on Carolina has some serious promise early in his career.

Carolina risking fourth downs early in the game shows that they view this game quite seriously.

Colts @ Titans (+4.5)

Daniel Jones and his play-action and screen fakes have been phenomenal. It was an issue last week, but this week he seems to have gotten so much better.

Rams @ Eagles (-3.5)

I need to review the second half of this game and find out where the Rams failed. A double-digit lead like that should not have been blown.

Jordan Davis is a star. Philadelphia may be the only team in the league with two potentially elite defensive tackles.

As soon as Matt Pryor (back-up right tackle) gave up that strip sack in the third quarter, the Eagles pulled him and sent in Fred Johnson. Kudos to them for reacting quickly.

These Eagles understand the Rams passing concepts pretty well. Being able to cover all the receivers coming out of bunch sets, sitting on potential bootlegs, etc...

Saints @ Seahawks (-5.5)

Given the way Seattle has laid up New Orleans in the first quarter alone, a part of me wonders if it matters (from a complacency perspective) whether a team has a game on Thursday night. Then again, the Saints may just be that awful.

Cowboys @ Bears (-1.5)

Cowboys seem very dedicated to their running game. Even against a patchwork secondary, Dallas still insists on running the ball. Maybe a Schottenheimer tendency?

Why run CeeDee out of the backfield? It's just a dumb move to have him contend directly against defensive linemen and linebackers.

Chicago has come out with a fire under its ass as far as I can tell.

This Eberflus defense seems a little too easy to decode to me. It was bad enough that the Giants exposed them, but now the Bears are killing them, first by attacking deep and then through methodical passing.

Broncos @ Chargers (-3)

Ballsy call on fourth down and 2 by the Broncos. Knowing the Chargers would likely overplay their hand against the run, Sean Payton had Bo nix run play-action to set up a deep pass to Courtland Sutton. It worked beautifully.

Chargers unable to get any pressure whatsoever. On the other side, Nic Bonitto and the other members of the defensive line have been swarming all over Herbert. It doesn't help that the Chargers seem to be missing some pieces along its offensive front. I have to investigate.

Chiefs @ Giants (+5.5)

The Giants do not have a kicker for this game. Graham Gano was injured during warm-ups.

Skattebo is prone to messing up and running away from his blockers. Hopefully, it's a rookie mistake and not indicative of his mental aptitude.

This Chiefs offense has been rough and out of sorts compared to their usual selves. The Super Bowl depression is a real thing. Mahomes has remained sensational, but few positive things can be said about the rest of the offense.

Russell Wilson is a bottom-tier quarterback. Almost certainly a green chip quarterback. It won't be long before Jaxson Cook takes over. It's also a pretty damning indictment on the Cowboys defense that Russell had so much success against them.

The Chiefs are intentionally stationing safeties deep. The answer to this would involve running the ball and leveraging tight ends. The Giants are having mixed success doing that though. Two times Russell has forced passes deep, Kansas picked him off. If the timing and precision was there, Russell would be able to work through the defense....but it isn't.

Tyquan Thornton might become that deep threat the Chiefs desperately need given that Xavier Worthy is currently suspended.

Paulson Adebo seems like a star. His name isn't mentioned much, usually a good sign of a cornerback who can shut down whatever receiver he's covering.

Lions @ Ravens (-4.5)

Remarkable play by Andrews, making contested catches against the likes of Brian Branch and Alex Anzalone.

Detroit is notably disciplined in defensive coverage.

The fact that Detroit can still manage to run against loaded boxes says something.

Nothing better shows the Lions commitment to the ground game than their almost eager willingness to run the ball on second and long.

David Montgomery notably is having more success against Baltimore's defense than than his counterpart, Jamyrr Gibbs.

John Morton has demonstrated the same creativity in offensive play-calling that Ben Johnson had.

The Lions seem to be running delayed blitzes against Lamar. Sometimes, they'd only rush three people (despite lining four or five along the defensive front and have a linebacker spy on Lamar before closing down on him as the play develops. I get the sense Detroit has a few things figured out about Baltimore's offensive line - namely that the linemen will always protect inside out and and that the linemen always try to occupy themselves with a defender right when the ball is snapped (which would leave Lamar exposed to a delayed blitzer).

Detroit might have some of the most athletic people in the league playing inside the defensive box - Aidan Hutchinson, Al-Quadin Muhammad, Jack Campbell, Alex Anzalone....

Packers @ Browns (+7.5)

These Browns have some intriguing talent. Besides Myles Garrett, Maliek Collins and Mason Graham are looking pretty good.

Jordan Morgan has been a bit of a liability for the Packers. It's unfortunate when teams are forced to rely on reserve offensive linemen who haven't practiced much so early in the game.

Josh Jacobs is special.

I respect Green Bay's use of motions to open up receiving outlets.

Joe Flacco is no longer accurate with his throws.