Steelers @ Bengals (+7) [Thursday]

This Cincinnati team is soft. Dropping passes left and right.

Finally, it took awhile, but Flacco was able to develop some rhythm with these receivers. Ja'Marr Chase has been fantastic working with Flacco on hot reads, slants, and sideline routes. Even Andre Iosivas is feasting with Flacco under center.

Flacco is now fully dialed in. This is what the Bengals desperately needed.

These Stelers have a very disappointing pass rush. I'm not seeing much gusto or verve. Then again, Flacco is getting rid of the ball a little too quickly for the linemen to hit home.

Pittsburgh's secondary is getting confused by the likes of this Cincinnati offense. Very worrying.

Saints @ Bears (-5)

Montez Sweat standing out early

This Saints offense is lacking balls. It's a short-yardage offense that seems like it can't operate when out of schedule. Their third-down conversion rates drop way too suddenly when they need to traverse more than a few yards to move the chains.

Credit to the way Ben Johnson draws up plays in the opening drives. He has proven himself superior to Kellen Moore so far.

Either Spencer Rattler cannot decode these blitzes or he's failing to process the field adequately enough before releasing the ball. What's clear to me is that Dennis Allen has Rattler's tendencies read like an open book. Almost every passing play is a struggle.

I suspect the Saints have issues handling fall/winter elements, given that they play in a dome down in the heated swamps of Louisiana.

The sad thing is Caleb Williams is playing like absolute trash. But when he's given some apt scripted plays as well as a competent running game, the Bears look just fine.

Research Caleb Williams' production against the blitz in this game.

I'm not sure the Saints have a deep passing game. It'd be worth looking at their explosive play numbers.

Caleb is just so sloppy and whimsical trying to close this game out. No sense of clock management.

Patriots @ Titans (+7)

Worth noting that Jeffery Simmons was lost sometime in the second quarter. It'd be interesting to contrast their defensive numbers after Simmons left with their numbers before. Either way, my Titans bet is absolutely done given that Tennessee is without their heart and soul on defense.

Cody Barton blew coverage in the flat on a very important fourth down. Disappointing.

Colts @ Chargers (-1.5)

The Colts had a beautiful play on fourth down near the goal line. Credit to Shane Steichen.

Packers @ Cardinals (+6.5)

Defensive tackle Wooden has been integral to this Packers run defense.

Micah Parsons has made the key plays to seal this game for Green Bay.

Giants @ Broncos (-7)

Sean Payton has a tendency to roll the pocket to the right to buy Nix time and give him an opportunity to throw on the run. These Broncos also love relying on quick screens. A good defensive mind can plan against this all too well.

Justin Strnad may be one of the better blitzers in this league. I have to start paying attention to his numbers. As a linebacker that can blitz, his value literally goes up exponentially.

Cordale Flott is making the case for himself as a blue-chip defensive back.

This Giants offensive line has been having an excellent game. The run-blocking and the pass protection has been on point. Any hits that Jaxson Dart has taken has been the result of (more or less) holding the ball for too long.

Do analyze all the Bo Nix passes that were batted down. I suspect that relates to a slower throwing time as a result of the time zone shift.

It took 1000+ games, but one team finally blew an 18-point lead late in the fourth quarter - the Giants pulled off that feat.

Commanders @ Cowboys (-1.5)

I have to admit, the Commanders have the most interesting pass rush I've seen. It's complex, but they're constantly running stunts and looping around one another. Dak is getting thrown off his game on occasion.

Daron Payne and Dorance Armstrong are looking to be the anchors of this defensive line. On the other side, nobody has really stood out much. Maybe I need to review the pressure tape to see if one defensive lineman is consistently winning.

After tape review, I have to give credit to the Cowboys for coming up with a brilliant defense. To be fair, it was a defense predicated on the Commanders playing short-handed in the passing game, but it was an adaptation that paid off handsomely. Eberflus shifted more to man coverage so that he could blitz defenders into the pocket. Washington's second-string receivers couldn't shake free from the secondary defenders trailing them quickly enough as Jayden Daniels always seemed to find himself under duress.

Jadaveon Clowney may be the best pass rusher on the Cowboys, an idea made all the more startling by the fact that they only signed him a few weeks prior off the street.

Falcons @ 49ers (-1.5)

It's been a slow start from the Falcons tonight, as expected. They're not the same force of will and grit that I saw last week when they hosted the Bills.

Bryce Huff showing life again as a wide-nine pass rusher on this 49er team.

It's been the exotic blitzes that have been throwing Penix off, in addition to some zone rushes. When drives mostly consist of running concepts and scripted plays, things go well for Atlanta. But when Penix is forced to produce on the spot as a dropback passer, things tended to end in San Francisco's favor.

Defensive tackle Jordan Elliott on the 49ers has been fantastic, at least in run defense.

Buccaneers @ Lions (-5.5)

Buccaneers were intent on lobbing the ball deep tonight, but Baker couldn't connect on a single deep pass for over 20 yards. Even with depth players mostly manning the defensive backfield, Detroit was amazingly stout in their pass coverage.

It also helped that Tampa was playing without the services of their top three receivers. Emuka was out there running routes, but he wasn't the same force of nature given his lingering hamstring issues. And frankly, Mike Evans wasn't playing at full strength either, so I do not count him. In fact, I think him breaking his collarbone tonight could be partly attributed to the man not having that same speed and burst that he would normally be flashing if his hamstring was at full strength.

One thing about Tampa Bay's organization - very bad injury management. Last year, Chris Godwin was injured on a rough play during garbage time. This year, Mike Evans was forced back into action earlier than he should have been and the man would pay the price with a broken collarbone.

Jahmyr Gibbs is a beast. Easily a blue-chip tailback.

Texans @ Seahawks (-3)

Credit to the Seahawks organization for keeping the injured members of their secondary sidelined for this game. Given that one of them was dealing with a concussion, he would have presented as a serious risk in coverage integrity.

Multiple times Derek Stingley has filed to adequately cover Jaxon Smith-Njigba. I think it's fair to say Jaxon Smith-Njigba is a blue-chip receiver.

I'm convinced Houston never practices the scramble drill. Which actually says quite a bit about their offensive coaching.

Two straight failed run plays where they couldn't even net one yard. Amazing work by the Texans offense. Houston's coaches still believe they can run the ball at will. It's worth noting that the first-down play was another failed running play where CJ Stroud actually turned to the wrong side when handing off the ball. There is no commitment to excellence or doing better here in Houston, at least on the offensive side of the ball.

Seattle(and Houston to a lesser extent) has some sexy blitzes schemed.

Jaguars @ Rams (-3)

Jaguars are just pathetic. Not having Devin Lloyd to help generate turnovers also hurts them seriously here.

Literally flying in the day before doesn't seem to be hurting the Rams or Stafford. Matthew is still as sharp as ever, despite not having his favorite target in Puka today.

Dolphins @ Browns (-2.5)

So far, I have yet to see Dillon throw a good ball in the intermediate and deep parts of the field. On top of that, his throws seem to lack touch, something that's very evident when you look at tape of his pass attempts on bootleg plays.

But the boy has thrown some great balls on designed screen plays.

Miscellaneous Notes

I'm starting to think Mike Pritchard may have been right and there may be credence to this idea that coaches perform much better against teams who have fired/wronged them recently. Both Mike Vrabel and Dennis Allen had career days against their former teams today. The only question really becomes how to quantify this? Is this worth 3, 5, or 8 points if we're using a Fibonacci scale? Should we apply a range to this metric instead?

We now have two teams that have performed incredibly poorly returning from London without a bye. Makes you wonder...