Vikings @ Chargers (-3)

It's telling that the Chargers have no real hot read option on big blitzes - Herbert nearly threw a pick as a result of McConkey not being ready for the jailhouse blitz.

Minnesota was not ready to handle the Los Angeles rushing attack, given they let up a century's worth of yardage to Vidal by the third quarter.

Oronde Gadsden may be a gamer for this Chargers receiving corps.

Giants @ Eagles (-7)

An injured Brian Burns isn't a good thing. Giants might need to be noted for their poor injury management.

Bills @ Panthers (+7)

James Cook may still be the best tailback in the league. His burst and shiftiness has been nothing short of impressive.

Joey Bosa has had a bit of a resurgence in Buffalo. A good case can be made that he's the team's best pass rusher.

Dave Canales worries me, not having told Andy Dalton to not take a sack to close out the first half. The Panthers were in prime field goal position, but Dalton taking the sack ruined that opportunity as time ran out before the field goal unit can assemble.

I don't think Canales can adequately prepare a quarterback in one week. The fact that Bryce Young started very slow the past two seasons might be testament to that. Add Andy Dalton's questionable performance today.

These Panthers don't believe in heavy sets or pass protection much, do they? Even when they keep a tailback in the pocket for pass protection, the alignment can be awkward. On one play, the tailback lined up too close behind the center so that when the ball was snapped, it ended up hitting him and veering off course, essentially resulting in an aborted snap.

Kudos to Sean McDermott for his perfect record coming out of a bye. His tape review and adjustments during the bye week end up paying off handsomely in these games.

Finally, Buffalo rediscovered its ground game. Not only that, but Josh Allen seemed much more willing to throw the ball short. Carolina's defense clearly wasn't ready for Buffalo's sudden change of heart on offense given that their coverage defenders seemed more inclined to play the deep ball.

Dave Canales likes to incorporate screens and end-around into his playbook.

On the other hand, Dave Canales doesn't respect tight ends or pass protection much. Quite the damn shame too given that neither tackle can really hold up against quality pass rushers. In fact...this is essentially the Bengals offense with a respectable run game. It makes sense now why the team has invested so much draft capital into wide receivers and halfbacks over the past couple years...though getting rid of Adam Thielan will never sit right with me.

49ers @ Texans (-2.5)

Note - whenever a team is starting nothing but second-stringers on defense, it might be an automatic bet against them, especially when complacency isn't in their favor.

Jets @ Bengals (-7)

I really need to look at the Bengals run blocking on film. It seems Cincinnati is having ridiculous success running the ball. From what little I saw, the Jets are getting gashed on all types of runs.

Bears @ Ravens (-6.5/-1.5)

How is it that the Ravens are not running out the clock in the fourth quarter? Their play calls and their willingness to run out of bounds seem questionable. They're extending the game for no reason and risking further injury to their personnel.

I need to examine if the Ravens were able to mount any pressure with their defensive front or did they have to manufacture pressure on blitzes.

Buccaneers @ Saints (+4)

Buccaneers are struggling to generate consistent production in the passing game. Baker only has 50 yards of passing in the first half.

I don't see Tampa's linebackers stationing themselves out wide in the flat. I thought Todd Bowles would have picked up on that cheat from the tape of the New Orleans/Chicago game, but I guess not. I think complacency has hit the Buccaneers a little too much here. Let's see how things open up in the second half.

Not being able to run the ball in 6 times from the 1-yard line is pretty damning.

Cowboys @ Broncos (+3.5)

These bootlegs seem to be paying off tremendously for the Broncos.

The Broncos love their man coverage schemes, don't they? They also mix things up with the half-man, half-zone look that made the Patriots defense so famous under Bill Belichick. Without Pat Surtain out there though, it changes things - no other cornerback can shut down receivers as adequately as Surtain.

Denver's cornerbacks are a little too aggressive in their man coverage - they're racking up way too many penalties. Then again, it's not easy covering Dallas' two top receivers.

Talanoa Hufanga is impressive, especially in run support.

The Cowboys coverage units are horrendous in terms of their spacing. They're affording way too much space/runway to opposing receivers. Too many times has Romo mentioned that they're lining up more yards deep than necessary on basic coverage assignments.

Packers @ Steelers (+3)

Twice has Jordan Love lobbed the ball towards the general direction of his receivers and his receivers (Tucker Kraft and Christian Watkins) have managed to reposition themselves to catch the ball.

Kraft may be one of the better tight ends in the league. I need to review his run blocking, but his route running is very crisp, even against Pittsburgh's man coverage.

Pittsburgh really wants the luxury of man coverage, especially if T.J. Watt is no longer the same force of nature that he once was.

I think Metcalf is a red-chip receiver. His route tree is limited and his football intelligence is suspect.

Rodgers is struggling to find receivers in the second half. Once DK Metcalf is draped in coverage, the passing game for this PIttsburgh team shuts down.

Green Bay has decoded Pittsburgh's blitzing schemes. Twnety straight completions in the second half is just not tolerable for any defense, let alone Pittsburgh's.

Commanders @ Chiefs (-11)

I see the Chiefs came into this game not giving much of a damn. Two interceptions from Patrick Mahomes in the first half seems overly careless, although the second one can be more attributed to Travis Kelce's hands.

The short passes and the traditional runs aren't as effective here for Washington. It seems the Commanders are willfully opting more for Mariota to run and for him to sit back and pass, even if it means holding the ball longer than normal. At least Kliff Kingsbury is going out of his way to ensure that the pass protection is able to hold up. Kudos to him for that.

Washington is not doing enough quality work keeping Mahomes penned in the pocket. It doesn't help that Washington is missing the services of its best pass rusher and the only other pass rusher worthy of note is injured and hasn't practiced all week.

The kicker being out here is absolutely killer. Though to be honest, I still think Dan Quinn would have gone for it on that one ill-advised fourth down in the first quarter.

Dolphins @ Falcons (-7.5)

Miami is trying new things in their offense. In particular, some concepts making some real hay for them involve the fullback motioning one way and then reversing course once the ball is snapped on run plays as well as exotic screens involving the outside slot receiver running behind space created by the inside slot receiver.

I notice Tua is throwing much more outside the numbers. I think Mike Macdonald is starting to register that Tua struggles to see the middle of the field, especially when one of his eyes is only half-open.

This Falcons run-blocking is horrendous. Then again, it doesn't help that they seem to hammer the ball into eight-man boxes. But even against lighter boxes, it always seems like one or two offensive linemen fail to block adequately.

On top of that, their early-down play calling is overly suspect in its simplicity - they're mostly trying to rush the ball in between the tackles. It's almost as if the coaches don't care much to flex or finesse their way through this contest.

One Falcon drive that started near their own goal line was absolutely horrible in terms of play-calling and decision-making. On first down, the Falcons rushed into a loaded box and lost yardage. Second down was wasted on a quarterback sneak designed to get the Falcons a few yards further away from their end zone. Third down was a sacrifice run simply called to put the drive out of its misery. These Falcons aren't trying at all on offense.

Seeing Kirk Cousins occasionally lob the ball away from his receiver is even more proof that these Falcons were not prepared at all today.