Ravens @ Dolphins (+7.5)

Lamar played a bit slow early in the first half, as expected. And Miami still could not capitalize. Whether it's silly penalties, miscommunication, a certain degree of cowardice, or just a lack of will....this Dolphin team cannot get it done against good teams. Their only wins will comes against teams ranked in the bottom half.

Bears @ Bengals (+3)

Caleb cannot scramble and pass on the run. It's genuinely bizarre to see somebody who prides himself on scrambling to be so bad at it.

The Bears had this game under lock and key with a 16-point lead by the fourth quarter and they're on the verge of losing. Amazing. How do you blow an onside kick?

Colts @ Steelers (+3)

There was talk earlier from a voice I respect that the Colts may not be ready to play football on an outdoor field as rough as the one in Pittsburgh. There may be credence to that idea given how poorly Indianapolis is playing from the box score alone.

Alec Pierce has been impressive in Indy's opening drives. Daniel Jones has been targeting regardless of whoever is assigned to him in coverage.

One thing that I do find concerning - Indy does not seem to care much about the ground game to open the game. In the first three drives, the Colts have passed the ball 18 times while only running 10 or so times. Then again, this may be normal...as they only run the ball somewhere between 40-45% of the time.

Aaron Rodgers is at his best when operating from the dropback position. His ability to read coverages and deduce windows of opportunity is still sharp as ever. When operating within the structure of the offense, Rodgers and company haven't gotten much going.

I think there is serious credence to this whole idea of turf mattering. I notice the Colts seem slightly slower than normal...which is not only throwing off timing on routes, but also pass protection. It make sense too....I believe they have yet to play a game this year on bad turf. So Acrisure Stadium was their first real experience playing on a shitty field.

Panthers @ Packers (-13.5)

Seems like the Packers are struggling against this Panther defense. I wonder what they're doing in pass defense to stymie this Packer offensive, especially in the red zone.

It seems like there might be credence to this idea that Green Bay were not paying much attention to this game on account of the fact that this match came between two games that carries far more meaning to Green Bay's coaching staff.

Green Bay's offense is too vanilla. Matt LaFleur really wants to run the ball against this defense despite the fact that Carolina remains one of the best teams in the league at defensing the run. No wonder I've noticed them struggling to cover big spreads against lesser teams - Green Bay is content running its playbook irrespective of the opponent's strengths and weaknesses.

Baffling to see Carolina's troubled offensive line hold up against this vaunted Green Bay defensive front.

How are the Panthers generating pressure on Jordan Love? Shocking.

Matt LaFleur literally came out in the second half and said nothing he saw in the first half shocked him and that the game is going according to plan. Just wretched coaching on Green Bay's part.

Rewatching this game on tape, I"m noticing Green Bay actually do the right things. Notably, they're passing the ball as much as they're running it. So what's going on here? How is Carolina staying competitive? It's largely because football is a game of edges. And the Packers are just not as sharp right now. On several occasions have I seen key defenders be a few tenths of a second short on making plays that would have changed the momentum of the game. Likewise, offensive players are making silly mistakes, namely drops and aborted snaps.

Also, the Panthers were amped. Carolina was very content playing the short game, as they were happy using all four downs to move the chains. They were playing very much with an underdog mentality. On top of that, Carolina's defense is attacking Green Bay's screen game pretty aggressively, so it's clear they studied the Packer offense on film. Also, their second-down blitzes against Jordan Love have been fantastically effective.

Twice has Carolina picked off Jordan Love on deep balls. These Panthers came into the game witha pretty good understanding of Green Bay's playbook.

49ers @ Giants (+2.5)

The right tackle for the Giants might be a liability. I need to examine the tape, but I've seen let up pressure against Sam Okua, a depth pass rusher.

The Giants run blocking is absolutely horrendous. The defensive linemen were in position to stop a run in between the tackles and the tailback (a second-stringer) was still able to house the ball.

Saints @ Rams (-14.5)

Devonte Adams has emerged as the team's red zone weapon, especially when isolated against a single cornerback on the wing.

The Saints really lack talent, don't they? Complacency enough isn't alone to save these teams. Four drives alone in the first half end in three-and-outs.

Staley runs a style of defense that should work fantastically against this Los Angeles offense. But so far, it hasn't done anything. It hasn't even stopped their zone-running.

I think it's fair to say Kool-Aid McKinstry is a failed first-round pick. Alvin Kamara has lost a step as well. These Saints are missing talent.

Chiefs @ Bills (+1.5)

Cole Bishop has been an absolute demon for this Bills defense. The second-year safety has been playing out of his mind.

The Bills are disguising coverage and it's completely screwing with Mahomes. That and I think the linebackers are doing solid work guarding the flat.

Offensively, the Bills have held up long enough in pass protection for Josh Allen to find his crossing receivers against this Chiefs defense. Which is honestly shameful considering Kansas has two pretty good pass rushers in Chris Jones and George Karloftis.

Just like the game last year, Buffalo is dominating this affair. Considering not many things have really changed from the year before, I should have used the historical precedent as a clue that Buffalo should take this game.

I need to see what Buffalo is doing here to confuse Mahomes. He might post the lowest completion rate of his career today.

It looks to me Kansas is convinced Kareem Hunt isn't the same caliber of runner as Isaiah Pacheco.

Seahawks @ Commanders (+3)

Seahawks remain productive through the air despite being down two starting receivers. Kudos to their offensive coordinator. Not to mention credit to him as Sam Darnold is playing better than ever.

The Commanders have no talent on defense. Bobby Wagner and Frankie Luvu are not the same linebackers from last year. On top of that, their defensive front has no juice.

An injury to Luke McCaffrey is the last thing the Commanders needed.

Cardinals @ Cowboys (-3)

Nothing summed up the incompetence of the Cowboys defense better than the Cardinals just having an easy time marching down the field in the last two minutes of the second quarter. Eberflus and his prevent defense were hopeless. Even worse, their defense against the quarterback sneak was just terrible too. They're not buying into the Eberflus philosophy.

DaRon Bland getting beat silly by Marvin Harrison is yet more proof that this Cowboy defense isn't functional.

The Cowboys offense is a little too obsessed with big yardage. Taking the small profits isn't something that really resonates with them.

Vikings @ Lions (-8.5)

Vikings defense is playing out of character in a traditional 4-3 alignment. It's clear their primary concern is containing the run game. It's also worth noting they seem to be playing primarily in a five-man front, which is particularly used to contain zone runs outside the tackle box.

On top of that, the Vikings have an interesting going with their blitz packages. They don't blitz so much as they do line up in six-man fronts. Once the ball is snapped, the ends drop into coverage, leaving the interior four defenders alone against the interior of the offensive line. More often than not, they seem to win the battle as Jared Goff is put under immediate duress.

Do the Lions have anybody besides Amon-Ra St. Brown on offense?

Minnesota is making some serious hay in the ground game by exploiting Detroit's aggression. Too many times do I see their offensive line moving one way only for the back to cut it back the other way. In the second quarter, the Vikings moved the chain on a second and 15 by pitching it out to the tailback while the entire offense motioned away from him - Detroit bit on the fake so hard.

J.J. McCarthy hasn't played well after the first quarter. His ball placement has been off against this Detroit defense that plays very tight man coverage.

Jailbreak blitzes also have been working well against Jared Goff.

Falcons @ Patriots (-5.5)

Penix might be pathologically dependent on the Drake. Outside of Drake and occasional throws to Pitts, Atlanta's passing game is non-existant. I don't know if that's a more damning indictment on Zac Robinson or Michael Penix. I'm more inclined to blame the latter, though don't get me wrong - the former disappointed me horribly last week against Miami. Uninspired playcalling and a spotty quarterback are not a good combo.

On the other side, Drake Maye is keen to hold on to the ball a little too long for his own good. Still, it is good to see him find out his short-option outlet on those select occasions when the Falcons do end up choking the pocket.

Jalon Walker may be the best pass rusher on the Falcons, though that may not be saying much.