Seahawks @ Cardinals (+1) [Thursday]

It's worth noting that the Cardinals seem to play very poorly in negative game script. Then again, the Seahawks defense has a habit of making things difficult for opposing offenses on long yardage downs.

Credit to Jonathan Gannon for scheming ways to shut down Jaxon-Smith Nijigba for much of the game.

Seattle's offense seems more than content playing safely (at least down the stretch). Even near the end zone, Kubiak is still only calling runs and short passes.

Kyler Murray does not tolerate blitzes well at all. Either he's rushing throws to the sideline or trying to dance in the pocket looking for an exit. When they go against the Seahawks again or against the Buccaneers, I'll be looking to bet against them. Only on those drives when Arizona hurried up on offense did they actually look respectable.

Chargers @ Giants (+6.5)

This Giants coverage unit is worrisome. They disappoint in big moments. Two successive third downs where the back seven let up plays.

Jaxson Dart has looked promising so far. His improvisational play has been impressive. Oddly enough, it seems like they're giving him the same type of plays that they gave Daniel Jones during their first year.

Daboll and Kafka calling three straight runs in the red zone doesn't make sense to me. It smacks of a lack of trust in the passing game.

Chargers are now incorporating quicker passes into their offense given all the injuries to their offensive line. Losing Joe Alt midway through the first quarter is significant.

Tuli Tuapolatu has been pretty good for these Chargers, especially when it comes to corraling Dart.

Quinton Johnston may be that third man in the passing game that the Chargers desperately need.

I'm ready to say this Giants offensive coaching only qualifies as a green-chip offense.

Giants defense likes to gamble on its blitzes. Sometimes those gambles work, sometime they don't. A blitz on a trap run led to the Giants giving up a 50+ yard touchdown.

Omarion Hampton is the real deal.

So many penalties by the Chargers. Indicative of a complacent team playing complacently.

Vikings vs. Steelers (+6.5)

Minnesota losing the services of their starting left tackle and center early in the game really doomed them. Pass protection was the major issue going up against this Steeler defense.

Lousy play call at the end by Arthur Smith. On a 4th and 3, Smith called an inside zone run. The problem was the Steelers lined up in 13 personnel, so the Vikings jammed the box as well. What a bizarre decision.

Ravens @ Chiefs (+2.5)

Lamar just isn't as quick as he was in his younger days.

Once again, Lamar's not seeing the delayed blitzes. Steve Spagnuolo is using the same strategy Kelvin Sheppard used last week against Lamar Jackson. It's working yet again.

Xavier Worthy is already contributing early.

Baltimore's coverage schemes have been on point. Very disciplined and sticky.

It takes some time for Super Bowl losers to get back their aura, doesn't it?

Colts @ Rams (-3.5)

I love the way the Colts play. They do not play afraid. And they're willing to brawl in the trenches. Also nice to see a young draft pick like Tyler Warren become an early-season sensation.

Jaguars @ 49ers (-3.5)

What a silly delay-of-game penalty by the Jaguars on 3rd and inches. Something is deeply off about Lawrence and I don't think I can put my hand on it. Even worse, right after that delay-of-game, Jacksonville was still forced to call a timeout as the clock was about to tick to zero yet again.

Trevor Lawrence may just be honestly stupid. Throwing it short of the end zone in-field with seconds left in the half was incredibly dumb.

This 49ers team just seems soft. The poor run-blocking, the dropped passes, the lack of pressure from their defensive line....it just seems like this team isn't fighting.

Brock Purdy throwing picks left and right apparently. I need to analyze this game to figure out if his absence from the field over the past few weeks is impacting him here. I should also examine his practice schedule. I also notice him throwing hospital balls on at least three occasions.

Credit to Dr David Chau for reaffirming that Purdy is not 100% and that should effect the performance of the 49er offense this week. Watching him sail passes is frustrating.

The Jaguars have really authored the book on blowing it in the fourth quarter. Had it not been for Devin Lloyd's heroics, they might have lost this game against a lessened Brock Purdy.

Packers @ Cowboys (-3.5)

So far, the Packers offensive linemen have held up well against the Cowboys. People were worried it could be a point of weakness for Green Bay given that it needed to be rebuilt.

Penalties have ruined some big plays for the Cowboys.

So many of Dallas plays seem to be directed away from Micah Parsons or executed too quickly for Parsons to react. It's a fantastic game plan, indicative of a team that spent time this week strategizing.

Eberflus trying to throw some blitzes at Green Bay isn't quite panning out. Maybe he's better sticking to his cookie-cutter four-man rushes.

Without Micah Parsons and Devonte Wyatt, this Packers pass rush looks gutless. Not sure what happened to Rashan Gary either. Is it possible the Cowboys offensive line is that damn good or is the defensive line this compromised without a few of their more significant contributors?

Kavontae Turpin can be a vector on his offense given the threat of his speed.

Romeo Doubs is the primary weapon on this offense.

Eagles @ Buccaneers (+3.5)

This isn't the same game from last year when the Bucs dominated Philadelphia at home. This Eagles team is much better now that Zach Baun, Quinyon Mitchell, Cooper DeJean, and Jordan Davis have emerged as blue-chip players on this defense. Furthermore, Tampa Bay played with one arm behind its back considering they entered this game without starters on their offensive line, without the services of their best receiver in Mike Evans, and without a properly conditioned Chris Godwin.

Given the way Nick Sirianni was celebrating, it was evident that Philadelphia exploited a weak point on Tampa's special teams protection. Whatever he saw on tape, it ultimately led to the Eagles blocking a punt and returning the ball for a touchdown.

Haasan Reddick may no longer be that elite pass rusher from a few years back. In fact, he's starting to look more like a liability out there.

Jets @ Dolphins (-2.5)

Not sure what to look for in this game. I suppose I should see how Justin Fields does coming back from a severe concussion.

The Jets remain very committed to their ground game, as evident by a run on 3rd and 6. And it's paying dividends, even against 8-man boxes.

Once Tua finds his rhythm, this offense returns to looking magical. It also helps that they're playing a surprisingly soft Jets defense. Darren Waller has been a surprise contributor too early in the game.

Some sloppy procedural penalties by the Jets, possibly as a result of Fields returning from concussion.

The defense is falling for all of Miami's bootlegs.

Bengals @ Broncos (-7)

Jake Browning has been spectacularly unsuccessful in this pathetic offense that lacks wit and novelty.

Watching Bo Nix hesitate on designed bootleg throws is just frustrating. What is this moron doing?

Yet another idiotic play by Nix, throwing the ball late on a screen pass. Sure, the kid has a lot of enthusiasm, but his processing speed seems slow.

Panthers @ Patriots (-5.5)

Panthers do some interesting things with their bootlegs.

In the first quarter alone, Patriots DT Christian Barmore has been credited with three disruptions. Impressive. The man's a beast.

Losing guard Brandon Zavala literally ended a promising Panther drive. In fact, going forward, his replacement (Brandon Walton) has been absolutely awful, especially in run blocking. It becomes so bad that Carolina benches him in the second half for a back-up tackle.

The linebackers for Carolina just aren't good enough, period. It seems the Patriots are making most of their hay early just by misdirecting the linebackers.

Carolina's defense has a tendency to show two safeties high only for one safety to come down as a flat defender. The other safety then rolls over to the deep middle as the single-high safety. The issue here is that I think New England is keenly aware of this tendency as well. A few of their more successful plays worked primarily because Carolina shifted coverages after the snap.

The Panthers lack playmakers at every level on their defense. Their linebacker Rozeboom has been particularly pathetic.

Carolina's has either one of the league's worst special teams or New England has somebody special returning kicks on their behalf. Likely a mix of both.

Bryce Young still has accuracy issues. Those tight-window throws will never be his forte. He needs more action, more movement, more designed passes. Or perhaps he just needs taller receivers who can fight for the ball down the sideline.

Drake Maye has been fairly quick and decisive with his passes. It seems he makes up his mind before the snap where the ball will ultimately go. Not necessarily the best way to play quarterback in the long run, but it's working out well so far. Stefon Diggs is emerging as another weapon on this offense alongside Hunter Henry.

LESSONS

Stick by your pre-snap convictions. Just because the Lions initially struggled handling the Browns didn't mean it was advisable to cash out that bet. The Lions were giving away at least 3-5 points of complacency in that game, so them taking a while to get revved would make sense in that context.

Cluster injuries invite volatility. Even with a week of experience under their belts, Tampa's offensive line still let up so much pressure on Baker Mayfield. So it's worth noting that a good performance by a unit one week does not say much about the next week. Volatility has to settle before definitive predictions can be made.

Pay attention to injuries. A rubric might be needed here to help me guide my betting process. Either that or the games page will need to be built in order to emphasize certain games that carry red flags.

Split complacency metrics across offense and defense.