Lions @ Bills (-5.5)
The Lions starting second-string safeties has hurt them here - Josh Allen was able to expose their lack of discipline on a big play for a touchdown.
Greg Rousseau may be on the cusp of emerging as a blue-chip pass rusher.
Jahmyr Gibbs is an elite runner of the ball.
Buffalo is really adapting well to its new offensive identity as a tight-end heavy team. Their use of 12 and 13 personnel has been frustrating opposing defenses who are used to playing more nickel and dime personnel.
Rock Ya-Sin has been a liability multiple times in coverage. Not only was he flagged multiple times with penalties, but multiple skill players have won against him. It is probably safe to certify him as a green-chip player.
I think Detroit has serious issues guarding against mobile quarterbacks. Josh Allen has badly exposed them in that regard.
Duane Carter has done solid work in Ed Oliver's absence. Then again, Detroit's coming into this game with a battered offensive line, so it shouldn't take as much work to frustrate the immobile Goff.
Two games in a row that Kelvin Sheppard has underwhelmed as the Lions defensive strategist. I know he's down critical players in the secondary, but expectations were higher given the rest of the defensive roster has sufficient talent. Watching the game, it seems like Detroit's players are always out of position, especially when Buffalo employs some misdirection.
Steelers @ Patriots (-4.5)
TreVeyon Henderson once again demonstrating his incredible home-run ability.
This Mike McCarthy offense is just uninspiring. Flaccid runs, weak attempts at play-action, tepid screens…this remind me of an old-school offense that no longer sells much in the NFL, especially if the physicality isn't there. To Mike Vrabel and Zach Orr's credit though, the constant blitzing from the Patriots seems to be throwing Aaron Rodgers and company off their game.
With Christian Gonzalez draped over D.K. Metcalf, Aaron Rodgers is really struggling to find another solid vector in the passing game. Pat Freiermuth and rookie Germie Bernard seem to have emerged as tertiary options in the passing game.
Metcalf is still dropping the ball. He hasn't learned from last week's mishaps. This may be an indictment against him and Mike McCarthy.
Browns @ Buccaneers (-8.5)
The “Baker revenge game” narrative was overblown. If anything, it's worrying seeing Tampa play so sloppily in the first quarter. Baker's decision-making has also been incredibly suspect.
The defense is on point though. Their blitzes and haze looks have been money.
Zac Robinson has reminded me yet again why he's a green-chip coordinator. He's not responding at all to Cleveland's aggression on defense. He's trying to rely on screens, but those concepts are not panning out for him. Cleveland has done a good job accounting for the screens even as they hone in on Mayfield on their blitzes. Credit to the Browns defensive coordinator Mike Rutenberg for a fantastic game plan here.
Credit to the Browns offense for adjusting in the second half to Tampa's constant blitzing. Cleveland has done great work moving the ball down the field on quick passes and unconventional running plays. Todd Monken has adjusted well in that regard.
Baker overthrowing his receivers is all the more evidence of his mediocrity. I expect things to change once he develops some rapport with his receivers, but it'll take some time.
I think the best thing that worked in Cleveland's favor in this game was the fact that they faced a very similar defense last week (Jacksonville) in similar weather conditions. It was much easier to adjust as they were familiar with the blitzes being thrown their way. The humidity didn't quite bog them down as much as I expected either, likely as a result of their trip from last week.
Todd Monken gave a fiery post-game speech after the win. I underestimated the man's head-coaching potential.
Commanders @ Cowboys (-3.5)
Jayden Daniels is looking good so far in this game. His mobility has been killing the Cowboys.
Dan Quinn's decision to go for it on fourth down on the last three seconds of the first half (instead of taking the points) may cost him the entire season. Jayden Daniels seems to have hyperextended his left arm the guards were pushed against him.
Jaguars @ Broncos (-2.5)
Three straight goal-line runs from Denver were stymied. A bit demoralizing, no?
Denver pass rusher Zach Allen has been a constant presence in Jacksonville's backfield.
Trevor's passing today has been notably poor when it mattered. It's almost as if he's regressing back to his former form.
Jacksonville's coverage defenders may be liabilities across the board.
Dolphins @ 49ers (-13.5)
Looks like the travel to and from Australia really did not impact them as much as I otherwise would have thought.
Colts @ Chiefs (-6.5)
Kristian Fulton coming up with a huge interception to give the Chiefs control of the game. And L'Jarius Sneed did well stonewalling Daniel Jones from running for a first down on a crucial drive. I'd say concerns about the Chiefs coverage unit are overblown.
Chiefs are so well-coached that they've already deduced that the Colts would lean heavily on slant routes to Keenan Allen. Keep in mind that Allen is on a new team here.
These short pass concepts have been absolute money for the Chiefs. I see these Chief receivers have so much space around them right at the catch point. Indianapolis is constantly out of position here.
Akeem David-Gaither is now the signal caller for the Colts defense instead of Cam Bynum. Something tells me that Anarumo defense is too difficult for some players to grasp. I see this in the actual game too - Colt defenders always look a few steps behind the Kansas offense here.
Kansas City's offensive line has dont admirable work here in both the run game and pass protection. The Colts have yet to really make any sort of impact in the Kansas backfield.
Odd. The Chiefs have so much momentum and yet it didn't seem to matter so much. Indianapolis is still making hay, thanks to a few lucky calls.
One thing worth noting is that in Alec Pierce's absence, Daniel Jones was really relying heavily on Josh Downs and Tyler Warren in the passing game. Warren was used more on scripted tight end leaks that were designed to net short yardage and keep the Colts in positive game script. Only Josh Downs was able to produce significant yardage consistently in the passing game. Not having Pierce will hurt the Colts.
Bengals @ Texans (-6.5)
Without Henry To'oTo'o and Nico Collins, Houston suffered a bit. Joe Burrow completed a few too many passes over the middle for my liking to Tee Higgins. Also, Houston had to rely on Dalton Schultz and an assortment of JAGs to matriculate the ball through the air.
Cincinnati put Tee Higgins and Ja'Marr Chase to excellent use in the passing game. Over the ground, Chase Brown was able to chew off some good yardage. It seems like Cincinnati has the balanced offense. Add a tight end and they could be one of the dominant units in the league. Credit to Zac Taylor and Dan Pitcher for finally putting together a cohesive unit.
On defense, things look much more promising for the Bengals as well. Al Golden's unit is finally starting to buy in to his way of doing things and the results have demonstrated that. It also helps that the unit underwent significant turnover at all levels in free agency.
Dexter Lawrence looks like the dominant force along that defensive front, especially against the run. Other contributors are stepping up as well sporadically, but Sexy Dexy looks to be its heart and soul.
Panthers @ Falcons (+2.5)
Cam Jackson looks to be solid defending against this Falcon rushing attack.
Cooper Rush fumbling on the very first offensive play of the game is not something that can be so easily forgotten.
Brandon Dorlus and Samson Ebukam may be the best pass rushers for these Falcons. So far, they've been flashing the most on tape during the first half.
Carolina has an interesting defense in that the front seven is now headlined by top-shelf players from other teams who lost some of their luster in the offseason, namely Devin Lloyd, Bobby Okereke, and Jaelen Philips. Of those three, only Okereke wasn't paid good money. But so far, Lloyd's risk-taking and Philips' presence on the defensive line in pass rushing situations has paid off.
Atlanta's coverage personnel are just awful. Safeties and cornerbacks are not even on the same page when it comes to coverage responsibilities. It's not like Carolina's receivers are running sophisticated routes. Some of them are running basic routes or even crowding out other receivers and yet Atlanta still cannot stop Bryce Young from passing the ball.
Giants @ Rams (-6.5)
Andrew Thomas has been letting up too much pressure against these Rams.
The Rams defense has been notably aggressive in terms of the blitz. On top of that, they're resorting to more man coverage against these Giant receivers. Credit to Chris Shula for varying up his tactics in order to throw New York off.
Giants coverage defenders have been neglecting Davonte Adams for some idiotic reason. It's like Dennard Wilson did not instruct his men to rotate coverage over to Davonte Adams should Puka Nacua not be present. Ironically, New York should not be so bad in the secondary considering Dennard Wilson was primarily a defensive backs coach. Then again, they're without Paulson Adebo or Deonte Banks, but the degree to which they're playing so poorly is worrisome.
Jevon Holland has been the one bright spot in the Giants secondary. The man singlehandedly forced two turnovers from the Rams.
New York's defense isn't reacting to increased Stafford placing additional pass protectors at the line. Once again, another damning indictment on this Dennard Wilson-led defense.
Trent McDuffie has paid dividends so far for the Rams.
There's a lack of coordination among these Giant defenders. I think that's primarily the fault of defensive coordinator Dennard Wilson.
Arvell Reese is proving to be a liability in coverage. I expect him to improve, but that will take time. It's safe to deem him a green-chip player for now.
New York tried to be cute on a crucial third down, trying to keep Cam Skatteboo and Patrick Ricard on the sidelines in order to convince the Rams that they're passing the ball. It did not work.
The Giants offensive line is proving problematic. The two tackles (Andrew Thomas and Jermaine Eluemunor) as well as center John Michael Schmitz have failed on multiple occasions.
Saints @ Ravens (-7.5)
Trenton Simpson has flashed a few times on tape for these Ravens.
The Saints are making a living on 3rd and long. It's almost sickening to watch their success on long third downs. I suspect the Ravens defense has issues with their third down dime defense, which is a little surprising given that Jesse Minter built his name on his three-safety looks.
Chase Young has been phenomenal in this game. It might be time to consider him as a blue-chip player.
The Ravens are smartly using Kyle Hamilton as a hybrid linebacker/safety. He's been especially notable for his coverage of the flat.
Ravens pass rusher Mike Green may be a player worth keeping an eye on.
It's the overload blitzes that have really frustrated this Ravens offense. Credit to Brandon Staley for a fantastic defensive plan here, especially knowing that missing Zay Flowers would likely lead to Lamar holding the ball a tad bit longer than expected.
LESSONS LEARNED
So I lost survivor early because I trusted the Buccaneers would win over the gutless Browns in the brutal Florida heat. The reality was the Browns had very recent experience facing an aggressive defense in humid weather. The other reality I neglected was that the Buccaneers were fairly sloppy in their season debut last week against Cincinnati. We should avoid trusting any offense that was notably sloppy, especially if that offense is under new management (as is the case currently with Tampa Bay). Sloppiness is hereby defined as a ratio of turnover-worthy plays (as measured by PFF) against total number of plays. I suspect the Buccaneers had an ugly number of turnover-worthy plays last week that really should have made me question the integrity of their offensive play.
There's a common adage here not to bet against teams that performed poorly in the first week of the season. I wish I paid more attention to Fezzik when he advocated for that axiom. And I suppose it makes sense when you marry that axiom to this whole idea of variability when it comes to teams with entirely new coaching regimes. The teams that I expect to change face the most from week 1 to week 2 are these teams under new management. For one thing, these teams are usually instituting new philosophies across their roster - it takes at least a couple games for this indoctrination to actually settle into place. On top of that, these teams are usually the most likely to show a willingness to change tactics. There's something about new leadership that just makes it easier to tolerate change. Maybe egos aren't as bloated yet? Either way, the biggest upsets (and near-upsets) were teams under new management - the Browns who trashed the Buccaneers, the Titans who nearly stunned the Eagles, and the Raiders who dominated the Chargers.
But just like variability giveth, variability also taketh. And we saw this generally in some other teams under completely new management - the Dolphins, the Cardinals, the Steelers, the Ravens, and the Falcons. It's worth noting three of those five teams won their respective games last week. And one of the two teams that lost is largely considered by many to be the worst team in the league by a mile - the Miami Dolphins. The other team is the Falcons, who are a mess at quarterback allegedly. I still need to examine that game though, because Carolina absolutely crushed them.
I need to examine whether the Denver climate affects players more adversely in September versus later months like November and December. I'll need to consult Claude here. It's worth noting that up until the last quarter Jacksonville was in firm control the entire game. It's only the fourth that things fell apart (similar to what happened to the Giants last year).
UPDATE: I did some limited research and there is an appreciable drop in performance for players in Denver, especially for players who are not in top conditioning yet. While still speculative, it would go a long way to explain the benefit Denver derives at home, especially during the month of September when players are most out of shape (theoretically). If players are only performing at 90-95% of their expected ability, then that would be enough to explain why road teams begin losing their grip of the game in the fourth quarter, right when game fatigue is at its absolute worst.
When the Jaguars faced these same Broncos last December, it was a different story - Jacksonville won pretty cleanly. And they were winning again today too, until the fourth quarter reared its ugly head. That's when Bo Nix began connecting with his receivers. Jacksonville's coverage defenders (the exact group of players who would be hardest hit by fatigue) always seemed a step or two behind.
A back-up quarterback cannot thrive when he's suddenly thrusted into action behind a poor offensive line.
I uncovered a new axiom. Do not trust new coaches to repeat the same success they may have experienced last week, at least not in the beginning of the season. We saw this back in 2014 when hotshot Sean McVay took the league by storm only to lose his second game. And we see this again this year with Jesse Minter and Mike LaFleur. One of the hardest things for any manager (as Sean Payton has attested to in the past) is to keep your players grounded after a big win. I imagine that type of feat would be incredible difficult for first-time head coaches.
UPGRADES/DOWNGRADES
Mike McCarthy / Brian Angelichio - Green
Todd Monken / Travis Switzen - Red
Write note about Travis Switzen's experience building out exotic run plays in Baltimore using Lamar and how that could play out well in Cleveland
Mike Rutenberg - Red
Zac Robinson - Green
Todd Bowles / George Edwards / Larry Foote - Red Leaning Green
