Buccaneers @ Cowboys (-8.5)
Once again, the Cowboys were expected to play complacently and they are playing complacently.
Jalon Daniels is interesting. He's very green, but he's doing the basic things well (like quick passes and resetting protection against haze looks). He does have a tendency to just take off and run when the immediate reads aren't there. Unfortunately, the running lanes aren't always there for him though.
This Dallas secondary is truly pathetic.
Bucky Irving just went ham in this game. He's back to top form.
Eagles vs. Jaguars (-7.5) [London]
Travis Hunter is emerging as that elite player his draft billing promised.
Jalen Hurts does not like to be rushed and it shows. Blitzes are incredibly effective against him.
Jordan Mailata has gotten away with multiple false starts.
I suspect teams previously unfamiliar with Jalen Hurts develop a beat on him by the second half of the game. As a result, this Eagles offense tends to dies in the second half, especially if they have no ground game to compensate.
Seeing Trevor Lawrence take hard tackles while running once again reminds me that the boy is just stupid.
Credit to Anthony Campanile for quickly figuring out the shabby nature of this Philadelphia offensive line and attacking them accordingly with well-schemed blitzes in the second half to complete shut down the Eagle offense.
Giants @ Commanders (-3.5)
The Giants lack of weaponry is hurting them here. Outside of Malik Nabers, who else is stepping up for Jameis Winston? Then again, this might be a Jameis issue given the way he processes things slowly. Either way, less than 100 yards of passing in the first half is losing football.
Jameis Winston has been extremely hesitant to throw the ball. Clearly, the coaches are forcing him to hold the ball for extra beats, which is compromising his timing.
The J.J. McCarthy play package has been way too predictable and telling. The Giants don't trust McCarthy to throw the ball.
Browns @ Jets (-1.5)
After Garrett Wilson torched them on the first drive, the Cleveland defense adjusted by jamming Garrett at the line of scrimmage.
All right, maybe all those defensive snaps that New York had to suffer through last week isn't really taking its toll in this game.
David Bailey has been sensational in this game.
Deshaun Watson seems to have issues reading the blitz. The Jets have been scoring major stops thanks to blitzes and their defensive linemen winning up in the trenches.
Watson has been throwing low balls and occasional ducks.
I think Cleveland was caught complacent. Even though the spread favored the Jets, I do not think the Browns (nor the Jets) saw the home team as the better team. That being said, Cleveland could have won this game, but the wet weather was their undoing and a complete lack of a pass protection plan bit them hard in the ass in the fourth quarter.
Raiders @ Patriots
Marcus Jones cannot cover Brock Bowers. The Patriots missing two of their starting cornerbacks is really hurting them here.
Josh McDaniels is back to his winning ways here. The Patriots were able to convert on two fourth downs very easily against this Raider defense on a critical touchdown drive. Furthermore, New England was able to pull off the hook-and-ladder to convert a very long third down.
Rhamondre Stevenson seems to have elevated his level of play from last year. His cuts and jukes seem more crisp now.
It's worth noting that I haven't seen the Raiders get very much pressure on Drake Maye so far in the first half. Without pressure, this Vegas defense becomes very sub-par.
It's worth keeping an eye on the tandem of Milton Williams and Christian Barmore. These two can potentially wreak havoc so long as they can stay healthy and get into a rhythm.
Elijah Ponder might be a pass rusher worth watching, given his raw numbers so far. It seems he's on pace to eclipse his rookie numbers from last year and we are just a quarter of the way through the season.
Hezekiah Masses is a liability in coverage for these Raiders.
Watching some of the tape again, I see the Patriots were celebrating forcing a three-and-out on the Raiders opening possession. Something tells me New England took this team very seriously. Why though? Was it the quality of their play over the last three weeks? Or could it be that this Vegas team is led by Klint Kubiak, the same offensive coordinator who was part of the Seattle team that beat them last year in the Super Bowl? I'm not sure.
49ers @ Seahawks
The 49ers have been eating Sam Darnold today, having collected four sacks on him in the first half alone. Part of the reason why is that they're not falling for the heavy bootlegs that the Seahawks enjoy running on offense.
Gracen Halton has broken out in this game for the 49ers.
Broncos @ Chargers
The Chargers shot out of a cannon in the third quarter. On a 10-minute drive, the Chargers easily converted several third downs (despite some holding penalties) against what is supposed to be a stingy Bronco defense.
Despite Sean Payton having seized back playcalling, nothing has materially changed regarding the efficacy of this Bronco offense. Bo Nix is still hopeless. Going into the fourth quarter, Denver only recorded two plays that have went longer than ten yards. I think Payton is trying to force Nix into throwing the ball deeper more, but those deep shots have not panned out in the slightest, in part because Nix is not even able to give his receiver a chance.
Justin Herbert took quite a few major hits last week against the Seahawks. Now he's still taking hits today from Denver's defense. How many times can we endure this abuse before it takes its toll on him? It's an honest question. How long ca quarterbacks withstand the pain and the constant harassment before cracking?
Why try to attempt a quarterback sneak against this Denver defensive front with an offensive line comprised mostly of second-stringers? I'm on the verge of declaring Jim Harbaugh as a failed coach, especially given the way he blew his challenges early in the contest. As good as his eye for talent may be, his hiring decisions and his in-game decision making just give me the ick.
Not having experienced wide receivers healthy is yet another thing biting this Charger team in the ass. It's hard operating in this offense if you have no experience with the play calls and the sequencing.
Credit to Sean Payton for denying the analytics and opting to go for the field goal instead to take the lead.
Ravens @ Falcons (-3.5)
Michael Penix hasn't failed to impress me these past three weeks. His deep passing and touch are a thing of beauty.
The real question here watching Tyler Huntley is this - how long does it take for him to develop a rhythm in this offense? This will be instructive.
Tyler Huntley is not known for throwing the ball deep and it limits the offensive potential.
I'm starting to notice that Jesse Minter has opted not to blitz much in this game, despite blitzing at a league average rate before. Maybe this is a sign that he greatly respects Atlanta's receiving weaponry. To be fair, Atlanta has some pass-catching gamers on their side - namely Drake London, Jahan Dotson, and even Kyle Pitts.
The discipline and the way these Falcons conduct themselves defensively is testament to Jeff Ulbrich's coaching.
Samson Ebukam and Divine Deablo have emerged as potentially elite players in this Falcon front seven.
Texans @ Titans (+6.5)
David Montgomery is not a shifty or agile tailback. He's a bruiser. A mediocre one, at that.
The Texans are not respecting the deep ball from Cam Ward. Or perhaps they know that enough pressure would tempt him to cut his passes short.
Houston's pressure has been relentless and Daboll's offense seems unwilling to do anything about it. I haven't seen enough heavy packages or purposeful passing from the offense. It's the one thing making all the difference in this game.
Both C.J. Stroud and Cam Ward are missing deep shots and open receivers. Neither are comfortable. The only difference here is that Stroud has a blue-chip receiver aiding him, whereas Ward has yet to develop a proper relationship with any of his receivers. Wan-Dale Robinson seems like his most trusted receiver.
Jeffery Simmons is just such a beast.
Bills @ Rams (-2.5)
Buffalo is really not relying on any of its receivers to matriculate the ball. This was after a week of practice without D.J. Moore, by the way.
Los Angeles really cannot generate any explosive runs, even from their 13 personnel packages. Their ground game is not pretty, but it's efficient.
The Rams are committing way too many of their resources to pure coverage. Buffalo's entire offense tonight has been the ground game, screens, and quarterback scrambles, but it has worked out spectacularly as the game has stretched into the fourth quarter.
I can only imagine complacency is the reason why Chris Shula neglected to come up with a pass rushing plan to keep Josh Allen hemmed in the pocket. Too many times have the Rams rushed four or more people only to let Josh Allen scramble out into the open field.
Gregory Rousseau is a blue-chip pass rusher.
Bears @ Packers (+1.5)
Watching the tape, it seems like the Packers invested significant time in the offseason studying up on the tendencies of this Bears offense. Too many times have I seen Green Bay defensive players proactively react before the play even fully develops. And many of those times, that early movement has paid off significantly.
Jordan Love has unleashed the deep ball in the third quarter. I wonder if the Packers saw something on tape that suggested that Chicago was a little lax with the way they let receivers run loose in the deep field.
Devin Bush has been fantastic despite the rest of the Bear defense playing very poorly.
I don't understand this Chicago offensive line. It's letting up quite a bit more pressure than I would have otherwise expected. On top of that, I see them making mistakes in both run-blocking and pass protection.
I see Green Bay's coverage defenders really crowding the middle of the field. And it seems to be working, at least against the likes of Tyson Bagent.
Christian Watson and Matthew Golden are really breaking out for this Green Bay skill position group. Add a resurgent Tucker Kraft to that list and Green Bay may have the makings of a complete offense. The running game needs work though - too many runs were stoned at the line of scrimmage.
Vikings @ Saints (+1.5)
This Viking defense is bonkers. Showing man coverage pre-snap only to quickly switch to zone once the center releases the ball, all while blitzing 5-6 men…Brian Flores is a gambling man. And his gambles have largely paid dividends so far in the season.
The Vikings do leave some serious holes in their coverage given all the crazy tricks and deceptive looks they employ. A wizened quarterback should be able to see through their smoke and mirrors, but Tyler Shough is still young.
Levi Drake Rodriguez is the heart of Minnesota's run defense.
New Orleans' defense still struggles to contain rushes straight up the middle. Kaleb Elliss being sidelined with injury really hurts them here.
It doesn't seem like the Vikings are all that excited about seeing Kyler Murray run around the field like a chipmunk. Rather, Murray is finally learning to operate from the pocket like a true quarterback. Kevin O'Connell is doing a good job of managing his workload with timed passes and easy reads, at least on scripted plays. On later plays, Murray is more open to scrambling, but his scrambles seem more purposeful and geared towards racking up some easy yardage while keeping himself safe from hits.
Eric Wilson forcing multiple holding calls in his favor on his blitzes. He may be a red-chip player with blue-chip aspirations.
Carl Granderson matters to this Saints defense. He may be the best lineman on this New Orleans defense.
Aaron Jones can gain some nasty yards after contact.
I feel like this New Orleans defense lost gas by the time the fourth quarter rolled around. Being on the field for 30+ minutes after a rough Monday night football showing can do that against you.
LESSONS LEARNED
Let it be known that teams are not incentivized to change so long as they win. It's hard to truly accept the need to do better so long as you're posting wins. We saw this earlier in the season with Pittsburgh and we see this with the Giants this week as they were slugged by the Commanders (at least up until the fourth quarter when the Commanders collapsed and the G-men were able to stage a comeback thanks to some beneficial calls from the referees).
I think I stumbled onto another axiom here. Two of the harder spreads to take seriously this week were the Raiders being 3.5 point underdogs and the Browns being 1.5 point underdogs. It was a little hard to accept given that both teams were exceeding expectations - the Raiders were covered four straight games against the spread while the Browns covered three straight. How the hell did the oddsmakers still not respect them after these teams kept beating their expectations? Well….it turns out they knew more than me. Las Vegas was annihilated today and the Browns (despite the final score) were murdered with glee. Both teams were whupped as the bookmakers literally picked my pocket. I think the oddsmakers keyed in on a new principle - a team that keeps winning against the spread across a set of 3-4 games is bound to disappoint very soon. Sure, the Raiders were able to cover the spread last week against the Chiefs, but they were playing on home field. It's possible this effect only presents itself when the team is on a road trip. Either way, I need to start tracking each team's performance against the spread to figure out which teams are on a streak.
Meanwhile, the Chargers are on a losing streak when it comes to beating the spread. Four straight weeks of not winning. Surely, Los Angeles is due for a win, right? Perhaps that's why the Charger spread is not as juiced towards the Broncos as one would immediately think.
I also wonder if younger coaches are just more prone to complacency early in their careers. We saw this with Jesse Minter in the second week of the season and now we see this Todd Monken in the fifth week of the season, despite neither game not carrying many obvious complacency markers.
When evaluating matches, I need to assess coaches who have coached against one another before, but in different capacities. I suspect Mike Vrabel may have gained a beat over Klint Kubiak after facing him last year in the Super Bowl.
Teams with questionable offenses can cover wide spreads, but only against other questionable offenses.
