Seahawks @ Broncos (+2.5)
Bo Nix was complete ass in this game.
Noteworthy that Seattle's defense didn't tire at all, even going into overtime.
Texans vs. Jaguars (-2.5)
Azeez Al-Shaair and Reed Blankenship are both out for the Texans in the first half, which should help the Jaguars with their passing offense.
Is it possible that the Texans have finally admitted to the futility of their running game?
Brian Thomas Jr. has not been running his timing routes as crisp as Jacksonville's offense demands.
Stroud has constantly been punishing the Jaguars defense for crowding the line of scrimmage. His throws over the middle have been netting serious yardage.
Travis Hunter has the potential to be an elite receiver for these Jaguars.
Houston is actually making positive strides forward in developing a running game here against a tough Jacksonville defense.
Saints @ Giants (+1.5)
It's worth noting that Tyler Shough is playing with broken bones in his throwing hand.
Kellen Moore has not addressed Asim Richards as a point of weakness on this New Orleans offensive line. Downgrade him for this.
Dru Phillips and Deonte Banks have been fairly successful blitzing against Tyler Shough.
The Saints absolutely dominated the second half. I need to see what changed, especially considering they lost not one, but two offensive linemen. I suspect the Giants ran out of manic energy when they exhausted their scripted plays.
The Saints pass rush finally showed up multiple times today. Carl Granderson and Chase Young flashed on at least a few occasions.
J.J. McCarthy nearly led what I would have assumed was an impossible comeback. Either the Saints defense laid down and played dead or McCarthy has some latent talent.
I think it's fair to declare Arvell Reese a green-chip player for the time being. His run defense has been fairly atrocious against the Saints in the second half.
I saw the Saints shift to a lot more 13 personnel look in the second half. That helped, especially with the run-blocking, but I still contend the Giants were lulled by a weird fog of complacency that took hold after their high wore off.
Honestly, J.J. McCarthy impressed me. Contrary to what people claim, the only starters the Saints may have taken off the field may have been their primary pass rushers in Chase Young and Card Granderson. And that was only for one drive too. McCarthy's willingness to throw the ball deep really impressed. me. And I am now convinced that Malik Nabers and Isaiah Likely are pass catchers specifically made to catch difficult balls. The only drawback worth noticing is his connection with the receivers on timing routes. That could be corrected with a proper week of practice. It's worth noting that the one receiver who had the cleanest passes thrown to him was Charlie Jones, a receiver he likely spends considerable time with in practice.
Ravens @ Browns (+5.5)
Declan Doyle has been fantastic in the way he's folding Josh Cuevas into the offense.
Deshaun Watson is struggling to even just pass the ball and I'm inclined to blame it on his indecisiveness.
Doyle's ability to manufacture yards with motion and match-ups has been impressing me so far.
Somehow, everything flipped in the second half and I need to see why.
EDIT: Upon review, the Ravens just kept messing up in the second half. Dropped passes, errant throws, botched snaps, weird fumbles….it's almost as if complacency hit them like a ton of bricks in the second half instead of the first half.
Steelers @ Buccaneers (+1.5)
Jalon Daniels has moxie and some balls on him. Reminds me of Brocy Purdy almost (but without any precise touch).
Bills @ Raiders (+5.5)
It will remain to be seen whether the Raiders can adequately contain Josh Allen after failing to corral Drake Maye last week.
Even when the Raiders defense is in good position, they fail to make the plays necessary to stop the opposing offense. It's an indictment against their front office that their back-seven talent is as shabby as it is. The linebackers in particular are really bad.
Credit to the defensive line for keeping Josh Allen penned in the pocket for most of the game, even if it completely compromised their pass rush.
I'm starting to think Maxx Crosby is no longer the alpha pass rusher he was a few years back. And without an elite pass rusher, this Raiders defense completely lacks teeth. Going against the Dolphins, Chargers, and a weakened Saint team in the first three weeks of the season may have inflated their defensive numbers. Against far better competition, their defense was pathetic.
Christian Benford likely qualifies as a blue-chip cornerback given the way he's defending Brock Bowers.
I have not noticed Maxx Crosby nor Malcolm Koonce much at all today. Looking at some of their quarterback pressure footage on NFL Pro, I notice some of their pressures came courtesy of Adam Butler driving the quarterback out of his burrow. Adam Butler deserves way more credit than otherwise given. But this confirms that Las Vegas has serious issues rushing the passer and it's going to hold them back for the rest of the season.
Chargers @ Chiefs (-8)
Justin Herbert has been garbage at passing.
Khyris Tonga has been doing his job as a run-stopping nose tackle remarkably well.
I am convinced that Mike McDaniel's offensive system has been mostly decoded across the league. Even the gadget plays that should pay dividends occasionally are bearing no fruit. The shovel passes and screens are getting sniffed out before they can even fully develop.
Cowboys @ Packers (-1.5)
Packers have started out the game throwing the ball deep. They seem to have drawn back a bit in the second quarter after the Dallas defense made their aggressive intentions known.
Everything is labored for this Cowboys offense. It's a sloppy offense that's losing its religion. It doesn't thrive in adversity nor is it having an easy time figuring out this Gannon defense. Looking back to last year, I see Jonathan Gannon was able to dominate this same Cowboys offense in a primetime showing that didn't seem obviously marred by much complacency. I thing he has decoded this Dallas offense, which speaks volumes about its sophistication.
This Packer field is slick. It makes me wonder whether the turf can prove especially hazardous for a finesse team.
Isaiah McDuffie has been having a great night when it comes to the blitz.
Jonathan Gannon seems to be very liberal with his blitzes against this Dallas offense. He's not worried at all about his cornerbacks against either of the Cowboy receivers, considering that his secondary players have been pressing them hard and staying with them on routes. Not only that, but Dak has thrown several balls that were picked or almost picked. I do think that Gannon has decoded the route tree for this Brian Schottenheimer offense.
None of these Dallas player are wearing the right cleats. Green Bay players are slipping too, but not nearly as often as the Dallas players. It speaks to the lack of attention to detail in this Dallas organization in general.
Commanders @ 49ers (-7.5)
Osa Odighizuwa impressing with an early sack.
As predicted yesterday, the 49ers started out amazingly in the first half, but stuttered in the second half once their high wore off. To be fair, being down Mike Evans does hurt. But Terry McLaurin for the Commanders exited early with what appears to be a season-ending injury, so Evans leaving only made things fair once more.
Few teams blitz more happily than the Commanders in this league. To be fair, their blitzing has not always been successful, but some of them paid off sweetly in the second half.
Jayden Daniels is a little tense throwing the ball. He was opting for shorter throws in the third and fourth quarter. I think the constant harassment from the 49ers defensive line was getting to him. It took quite a bit of time for the young man to regain his composure and start throw the ball deep, though his passes still seemed to be missing some touch. He threw a rough ball to Treylon Burks on a fourth down that should have been a touchdown if it wasn't thrown so badly. I think Jayden's confidence and demeanor can be questioned at this point of the season.
Malik Mustapha had some lovely plays at the end to close the game out for this 49er defense.
This 49er offense without Mike Evans or Deebo Samuel looks much more pedestrian, though I think Kyle Shanahan will rectify that somewhat come next week.
Bears @ Falcons (+2.5)
I think the Bears defense were gambling on Penix throwing the ball short due to his injury. It's a risk that has paid off tremendously. Credit to Dennis Allen for the strategy here.
The Bears have been blitzing on every other down. They're really banking on Michael Penix not being able to process things quick enough. And so far, it's a risk that's been paying off.
Mike Hughes has been a significant point of weakness for Atlanta's secondary. He's let up two big catches in the first quarter to help the Bears take off to a 14-point lead.
Chicago seems reinvigorated with Caleb Williams back under center. Even Colston Loveland has been catching tough passes.
I'm not sure if this matters much, but Dennis Allen was able to dominate Stefansky's Browns last year when these two met. I can't help but think Allen was able to reuse parts of that game plan in this match today given the way the Bears are aggressively attacking the screens and dagger routes.
Cardinals @ Rams (-12.5)
Walter Nolen has made a number of impact plays in the first half. He and Josh Sweat are quickly emerging as a respectable pass rushing duo for this Cardinal defense. Both need to be recognized accordingly as defensive linemen that are clearly above replacement level.
It seems like the Rams are experimenting with their offense in this game. Instead of throwing the ball to Puka Nacua obsessively, McVay seems more inclined to call long third-down runs and tight-end screens. I don't think McVay ever took Arizona seriously in this game.
Given the way Los Angeles started so slowly, I do suspect they've been slowed down by bad vibes. The collective morale of this team needs to be called into question.
Budda Baker still looks like an impactful safety.
LESSONS LEARNED
I have a theory here that's an extension of my other theory regarding teams who lose meaningful games immediately before entering the playoffs. There's a depression effect that tends to plague these teams at least for the first quarter or two. I think we see a smaller depression effect among teams who lose games that they were not losing for a decent part of the fourth quarter. Likewise, there's a small (but infectious) manic effect that takes over and inflates the performance of those teams who stage game-winning drives in the fourth quarter.
On that note, is it possible that in a manic phase, scripted plays just become so much more effective? That would explain the success the Giants and Ravens experienced in the first half before utterly collapsing in the second half.
When exploring the past history between two teams in a contest, also look at any recent experience their senior managers had with the opponent. I missed that Jonathan Gannon had solid experience stopping Brian Schottenheimer's unit before.
