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NBA Playoff 2025 Notes

May 04, 2025

Just using this post as a way to create a running set of notes as I watch the playoffs....


Indiana Pacers

The Pacers love attacking the net early on offensive play before the opposing defense is able to set into place. Out of all teams I've seen so far playing in the postseason, Indiana has been the most aggressive.

Announcers have given lip service to the capability of the Pacers bench, in particular noting that coach Rick Carlisle makes it a habit to rotate ten players regularly.

Pacers also prefer shooting out from the perimeter, it seems. More points seem to come from beyond the paint, event hough it appears to me that Cleveland's playing a smaller line-up that should be better at perimeter defense (in theory).

Going back to last year, Rick Carlisle has notably trained this team well. Their demolition of the Bucks in the first round and their (very) early success against the Cavaliers so far stand as testament to this.

Indiana's end-game play management was sensational - it's the only way they won Game 2 against Cleveland, effectively sealing this series.

The Pacers may have been taken by surprise by the Cavaliers sudden ferocity in Game 3, but they adjusted nicely in Game 4 and came through with a brilliant performance against Cleveland. Credit once again to coach Carlisle.


Cleveland Cavaliers

Just like their second-round opponents, the Browns also make it a habit to score early on offensive plays before the opposing defense can find their footing.

Their bench depth has been lauded by the announcers as perhaps the league's best.

Without Donovan Mitchell, the Cavaliers cannot sustain much on offense. Donovan in hero mode might not be what this team needs. If anything, Cleveland needs Darius Garland back if they want to compete at the highest levels.


Golden State Warriors

Seems like the Warriors (a team who loves the fast break as much as anybody else out there) are deliberately slowing things down in a Game 7 against the more physical Rockets. It's a strategy that's paying off dividends for them - not only are they conserving energy not forcing themselves into the paint, but Houston isn't able to find any rhythm to try and close out against these Warriors.

Golden State is also taking pains to guard VanVleet more closely, knowing that his three-point prowess can kill them.

Golden State has been a team that's heavily experimented with different player combinations through much of the season. It was this experimentation with different lineups that ultimately led them to trade for Jimmy Butler. I take it the bench isn't quite good enough to compliment Curry and Draymond.


New York Knicks

KAT (Karl-Anthony Towns) has no physicality playing center. It's tiring seeing him get bodied in the paint, whether he's shooting or just trying to grab the rebound. His ball awareness can be lacking sometimes too.

The fourth quarter is Jalen Brunson's quarter and nobody else's. Although Anunoby and Hart have contributed in terms of scoring and presence, Brunson has been the engine for New York. Sad to see the man working so hard with such a barebones supporting cast.

Midway through the second series and the Knicks look a little exhausted. They're not nearly as aggressive as they should be for a team focused on scoring within the paint. The wear and tear of the postseason is taking its toll on them. That being said, they're compensating by shooting the ball more and it's paying dividends.

Tom Thibodeau is famous for overworking his players and it shows in their closing game against the Celtics. No need to play his starters deep into the fourth quarter, but Thibodeau feels strongly otherwise. Rejecting load management is a strategy that works only when the bench runs deep with quality personnel.

And the lack of bench depth surfaced in ugly fashion against the Pacers in Game 1 of the ECF. The Pacers were simply better closing out the game. The Knicks lost the will to win against a Pacers team that never gave up despite being down by double digits with only three minutes remaining in the game.

Then again, maybe it's the starters that's the issue with the Knicks. In Game 2, it wasn't until Mitchell Robinson and McBride entered the game that New York finally showed signs of life. Where's the pride? Where's the chip on your shoulder? For a team that lost in humiliating fashion just days ago, New York opened the game remarkably flaccidly.

Another thing that alarms me is that in a prolonged series with the Pacers, the Knicks have yet to adjust to Indiana's use of incredibly fast breaks. Indiana has been killing them on the quick transitions and New York's players just sit there dumbfounded.


Boston Celtics

While Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum are generally considered the best players on the team, Al Horford's presence on this roster should be commended. Horford has been the team's rock on defense and played phenomenally in spot situations.

Criticize these Celtics all you want, but their habit of settling for three-pointers early in the postseason will serve them well going forward so long as they are not caught in a prolonged cold streak.

Credit where credit is due - Boston's defensive discipline is remarkable. They've been fantastic defending their basket without resorting to fouls.

Losing Jayson Tatum is the death knell for this team. Combined with some horribly-cursed three point shooting and Boston never stood a chance against the Knicks.


Minnesota Timberwolves

Sometimes, I wonder if the Timberwolves lack leadership. Anthony Edwards isn't really built to take over in the fourth quarter. Julius Randle has shown more initiative and will than Edwards.

Minnesota is reportedly celebrated for their defense.

The Timberwolves are settling for way too many three-pointers against the Thunder. It's almost like the Thunder are intentionally plugging up the paint with big defenders and forcing Minnesota to have to shoot from distance.


Denver Nuggets

Michael Porter Jr. is clearly injured, given his lazy play and the way he holds his shoulder.


Oklahoma City Thunder

The Thunder might be the team with the deepest roster in the whole league. SGA, Chet Holmgren, Alex Caruso, Isaiah Hartenstein, Jalen Williams, and Lu Dort have all stood out as valuable contributors in their postseason success so far. Typically, when you combine two certifiably competent big players with a superstar, you have the makings of an unstoppable championship team.


Gambling

I have the sense sportsbooks do not take early-game leads from underdogs seriously. For the line to move significantly against the favorite, the underdog has to sustain their lead well into the second quarter and early into the third quarter.

I wonder if there's something to be said about two elite defensive teams facing off against one another in an elimination game. It seems like the under would be naturally a fantastic play in such a game. The Warriors and Rockets are one example of this.

Teams coming off long periods of rest have some serious rust to shake off.

Whenever teams are down their signature player, be very wary of gambling big money on them in following postseason games. Opposing defenses will change up their entire defensive plan now that they no longer have to concern themselves with the team's scariest weapon. Watching Minnesota dismantle Golden State in Game 2 is testament to that.

Quite a few games in the postseason have been going under in the first half, only for scoring to expand by a significant margin into the second half.

I need to give games much more time to play out before bailing out of bets. It's hard to have that type of patience...but it has to be done. Game 5 of the NBA Finals was an expensive lesson for me considering Tyrese Halliburton's injury threw me off completely. Apparently, his ankle injury was much more severe than initially anticipated - after a few games, it finally started flaring at the worst possible moment. His scoreless first half will probably cost Indiana the game (as well as the +9.5 cover). That being said, Indiana is still fighting hard. Admirable, but also sobering considering that had Tyrese been a bit healthier, the Pacers would have been in position to close this series out in six games. Another thing worth noting is that strategy changes on a half-by-half basis. After witnessing an entire half of Halliburton doing nothing while the rest of the team repeatedly fails to generate points in the paint, Rick Carlisle did the smart thing and adjusted accordingly in the second half. More T.J. McConnell, less Halliburton. Compliment that with more fast breaks and players deliberately shooting more from the perimeter and you have a Pacer team in contention at least in the second half.

The Owl