So this will be an ongoing post about research I'm conducting into certain NFL trends. Let's start...
I'm trying to figure out just exactly how many completed passes for positive yardage and positive runs should an NFL team expect to execute in a given game. In order to properly calculate this though, the dataset needs to be filtered in order to excise garbage-time plays. But we can't even attempt that until we adequately define garbage time.
Garbage time is hereby defined as any time when teams play outside their script and are not trying to stage a comeback or stave off a rallying opponent. What does that mean from a mathematical standpoint? The following scenarios encapsulate a full and precise definition of garbage time in my educated opinion.
- The score differential is greater than greater than or equal to 28 points with less than 3 minutes left in the third quarter
- The score differential is greater than or equal to 23 during the 4th quarter
- The score differential is greater than or equal to 16 with 5 minutes or less left on the game clock
- The score differential is greater than 8 with roughly 2 minutes or less left on the game clock
I'm also factoring quarterback scrambles into the equation too, so long as those scrambles go for positive yardage without any self-inflicted penalties or fumbles. Ultimately, productive plays are wholly comprised of completed passes for positive yardage, runs for positive yardage, and quarterback scrambles for positive yardage. If you add penalties benefitting the possession team into this formula, then you have a pretty thorough metric, though it's worth noting that no single metric will ever perfectly encapsulate a team's performance in a given contest. Still, this productivity metric stands as an excellent way to gauge a team's productivity irrespective of context or strength of competition. Applying this equation to all games that have taken place from 2020 onward, I found out that teams run an average of 41 plays per game, with a standard deviation of approximately 8 plays. So with that information in mind, I'm going to declare the following:
Teams are expected to run anywhere from 37 to 45 productive plays per games. If a team executes more than 45 such plays, the team has exceeded offensively. But should a team execute less than 37 plays, the team has underperformed.
